Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 10, 2015
Something different from Steel Market Update this week. I would like for you to forward our newsletters to your friends, customers, suppliers or anyone who might have an interest in the steel industry.
We continue to offer an incentive to companies that recommend our newsletter to others. As long as the new customer provides us the name of the company who recommended them, we will provide a $100 credit to the company making the recommendation. This credit can be used at any time during a 12 month period on any SMU product: workshops, conferences or on newsletter upgrades or renewal.
Wednesday of this week will be the last day to register for the 5th Steel Summit Conference at early bird rates. Between now and the end of the day on the 15th our rate is $1000 per person prior to any SMU customer discount (another $100). On Thursday the rate will increase to full price which is $1200 per per and the SMU customer discount will continue up until the day of the conference.
This coming week will be the week to determine if the other mills are going to move pricing in lock-step with US Steel. Last week USS announced a $40 per ton base price increase on spot orders. Their target price has been reported to be $500 per ton on hot rolled coil. We will see if the other mills think now is a good time (and market) to raise prices.
If you have any questions I can be reached by email at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone at 800-432-3475.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.