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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    On August 1st Steel Market Update celebrated our seventh (7th) anniversary and began our 8th year in operation. Some day I am going to figure out how many newsletters and articles I have written about the industry over these past seven years (not counting the articles written before I took the newsletter public in 2008 – I actually starting writing SMU in 2004 for my customers). I would venture to guess the number of typewritten pages would be in the tens of thousands.

    I have to take a moment and thank all of our subscribers who have supported Steel Market Update over the years. SMU started as a one man show, Diana didn’t even work for me in the beginning. My timing was perfect – I incorporated and began selling memberships in August of 2008 – literally two months from the market crash and ensuing “Great Recession.” Between August 1, 2008 and the end of September 30, 2008 I sold enough memberships to keep the company going. After September 30th it was a struggle as companies were being hit daily with falling steel prices, being way over-inventoried and not knowing what the future held for their company (or them personally).

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    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.