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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    The Steel Summit Conference is pushing 230 people and we have 4 weeks to go. We sold out the room block for September 1st. We should (we hope) be able to get more rooms added, however the room block expires either when we sell out the revised number or on August 10th, whichever comes first. We are meeting with the hotel late tomorrow morning. If you are having difficulties getting our room rate wait until at least mid-afternoon tomorrow or early on Thursday to make (or revise) your registration. The hotel is the Airport Marriott Gateway Hotel which is located on the first stop of the SkyTrain (not MARTA) right next to the Georgia International Convention Center (which is also the first stop on the SkyTrain). The special reservation page for our conference can be found by clicking here.

    A note about our coverage of the various dumping suits (antidumping and countervailing duty) that have been filed and we expect to be filed by the domestic steel mills. I have decided that it is not in our readers best interest for SMU to be the first to report “something” that happens just to be the first. Over the past few years I have developed relationships with trade attorneys on both sides and I am trying to make sure that when we report something that we not only give what the paperwork may say but to provide an understanding as to what it means for the industry. A good example is the issue of the mills requesting an extension of the preliminary determination of the CVD (countervailing duty). It is important to know what this means and what we need to expect on the antidumping segment of the trade case.

    Latest in Analysis

    November scrap prices rise as market nears settle

    November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.

    SMU scrap market survey results now available

    SMU’s November ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Scrap export market activity perks up

    There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.