Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 3, 2015
The Steel Summit Conference is pushing 230 people and we have 4 weeks to go. We sold out the room block for September 1st. We should (we hope) be able to get more rooms added, however the room block expires either when we sell out the revised number or on August 10th, whichever comes first. We are meeting with the hotel late tomorrow morning. If you are having difficulties getting our room rate wait until at least mid-afternoon tomorrow or early on Thursday to make (or revise) your registration. The hotel is the Airport Marriott Gateway Hotel which is located on the first stop of the SkyTrain (not MARTA) right next to the Georgia International Convention Center (which is also the first stop on the SkyTrain). The special reservation page for our conference can be found by clicking here.
A note about our coverage of the various dumping suits (antidumping and countervailing duty) that have been filed and we expect to be filed by the domestic steel mills. I have decided that it is not in our readers best interest for SMU to be the first to report “something” that happens just to be the first. Over the past few years I have developed relationships with trade attorneys on both sides and I am trying to make sure that when we report something that we not only give what the paperwork may say but to provide an understanding as to what it means for the industry. A good example is the issue of the mills requesting an extension of the preliminary determination of the CVD (countervailing duty). It is important to know what this means and what we need to expect on the antidumping segment of the trade case.
We also have to assume that the domestic mills will treat the cold rolled suit similarly as the coated suit. You should anticipate that critical circumstances will be requested and that has an impact as to the risk associated with CRC that is arriving now and over the next couple of months.
We should also anticipate a hot rolled dumping suit. As one of our sources put it to us today, “The mills are trying to dam the river” by preventing almost all foreign steel from coming into the country. One of the trade attorneys told us, when speaking about the trading companies that are continuing to bring in cold rolled from China, “They don’t know how vulnerable he is and they are going to find out.”
We would expect that we might see some cancellations of CR orders out of a number of the affected countries. The item to watch is to see if imports rise by 15 percent (or greater) as that is the threshold to claim critical circumstances (in other words the country is trying to get as many tons into the market before the deadline – the preliminary determination date).
For those wondering what happened to my voyage on the iron ore vessel. We are still trying to work out finding a new vessel that meets a number of criteria – dates that work for both myself and one of the executives of Interlake Steamship Company. Making it tougher is summer vacations, previous commitments and our Steel Summit Conference which is only a few weeks away. I still have my fingers crossed that I will get to go before the snow starts to fly in Minnesota (having lived there for 10 years it can start to get cool anytime after the middle of September).
I want to take an opportunity to welcome our newest Steel Market Update member companies and those who have signed up for a trial of our newsletter and website. I enjoy hearing from our customers and potential customers and I can be reached at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Please send me your thoughts and suggestions as they are appreciated.
To all of our customers I want to take a moment to thank you for your business which is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update. Please tell your suppliers, customers or friends in the industry about SMU as you are our best sales force that we could ever hope for.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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