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    Analysis

    November 23, 2015

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    Tonight’s issue should have plenty of “meat on the bone” for everyone to read and re-read over the Thanksgiving Holidays. Due to the Holidays we will not publish our Thursday and Sunday evening issues. Our next full issue will be Tuesday, December 1st. However, as always, if news breaks that we feel needs your attention we will publish a special issue.

    With so many steel trade suits going at the same time it should not come as a surprised that the US Department of Commerce pushed out the Preliminary Determination date on hot rolled into March. Trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz has been advising SMU and our readers all along to expect push-outs. If you want to learn more about the history of antidumping, countervailing, critical circumstances, volunatry restraint agreements and Section 201’s – and how your company should be dealing with each – come join us in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida on March 7-9, 2016 for our Leadership Summit. Top executives need to know and they can learn from an experienced trade attorney how the system works. Registration is available on our website or through our office. We have early bird rates in effect through January 1, 2016 and SMU member companies also receive a second discount.

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Analysis

    Scrap export market activity perks up

    There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.