Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


Tonight’s issue should have plenty of “meat on the bone” for everyone to read and re-read over the Thanksgiving Holidays. Due to the Holidays we will not publish our Thursday and Sunday evening issues. Our next full issue will be Tuesday, December 1st. However, as always, if news breaks that we feel needs your attention we will publish a special issue.

With so many steel trade suits going at the same time it should not come as a surprised that the US Department of Commerce pushed out the Preliminary Determination date on hot rolled into March. Trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz has been advising SMU and our readers all along to expect push-outs. If you want to learn more about the history of antidumping, countervailing, critical circumstances, volunatry restraint agreements and Section 201’s – and how your company should be dealing with each – come join us in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida on March 7-9, 2016 for our Leadership Summit. Top executives need to know and they can learn from an experienced trade attorney how the system works. Registration is available on our website or through our office. We have early bird rates in effect through January 1, 2016 and SMU member companies also receive a second discount.

For those wanting to learn more about the basics of the steel industry – from the making of steel from iron ore or scrap – to how the steel is sold and what affects prices, come join us in Starkville, Mississippi for our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop. The workshop, which will be held on January 19-20, 2016 will include a tour of SDI Columbus steel mills which is located a short distance away from Starkville. You can learn more about our program on our website or feel free to contact our office: 800-432-3475.

We want to take this opportunity to wish all of our USA customers a very Happy and Healthy Thanksgiving Holiday with family and friends.

As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

I’ve had discussions with some of you lately about where and when sheet prices might bottom. Some of you say that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won’t fall below $800 per short ton (st). Others tell me that bigger buyers aren’t interested unless they can get something that starts with a six. Obviously a lot depends on whether we're talking 50 tons or 50,000 tons. I've even gotten some guff about how the drop in US prices is happening only because we’re talking about it happening.

Final thoughts

We’ve all heard a lot about mill “discipline” following a wave of consolidation over the last few years. That discipline is often evident when prices are rising, less so when they are falling. I remember hearing earlier this year that mills weren’t going to let hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fall below $1,000 per short ton (st). Then not below $900/st. Now, some of you tell me that HR prices in the mid/high-$800s are the “1-800 price” – widely available to regular spot buyers. So what comes next, and will mills “hold the line” in the $800s?