Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 9, 2015
I expect the other domestic mills to go along with price increases of their own – whether they choose to announce the move may depend on what they feel is in their best interest. I would anticipate that Nucor will come out with their own announcement. US Steel and ArcelorMittal are in the process of negotiating labor contracts and they may be more reserved with any kind of public display announcing higher prices when they are trying to get concessions out of their customers. As we write this article we are aware of three mills having announced increases: NLMK USA, Northstar Bluescope and AK Steel.
Nothing is a for sure when these kinds of announcements are made. If you have a couple of mills who do not support the move, for whatever reason, the whole thing can come crashing down. At this moment, my opinion is that the mills will collect somewhere around $30-$40 per ton above the business levels being used this past week.
We have two exceptional events happening in early 2016. We still have room in our Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop which will be held on January 19-20, 2016 in Starkville, MS. The workshop also includes a tour of the SDI Columbus, MS steel mill which is located about 20 minutes away from the brand new Marriott hotel where the classes will be held. Details are on our website or you can contact us at 800-432-3475 or by email: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
We also have our Leadership Summit Conference which will be held on March 7-9, 2016 in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. This conference will be different from anything we have done in the past and we have some exceptional speakers who will share insights into: the Economy, antidumping and countervailing trades suits, managing different generations in the work place (especially those pesky Millennials), creating a competitive advantage and understanding the new steels – from automotive to construction. Registration is open and we have a $250 early bird discount for those who register through January 1, 2016. Details are on our website. The conference is being held at the beautiful PGA National Resort & Spa and we are limiting the number of attendees. Please contact us with any questions you might have: 800-432-3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
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John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final thoughts
SMU had the pleasure of attending the American Iron and Steel Institute's (AISI's) annual general meeting in Washington this week. It was a slow week in our nation's capital, so we were able to take a leisurely stroll around the National Mall and take in the sights. Just kidding. In fact, the meeting coincided with significant trade actions announced by the Biden administration. It included, among other things, additional tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.
Final thoughts
Our spot price is little changed this week after moving sharply lower last week on the heels of Nucor’s unexpected price cut. Here’s one thought on that trend: Nucor's weekly HR price (aka, its “Consumer Spot Price” or CSP) has to date functioned almost more like a monthly price.
Final thoughts
What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.
Final thoughts
Last week we wrote about a brief lull in price movement, labeling it a period of wait and see. It did, in fact, turn out to be pretty brief. This week... things are little bit different. Perhaps right now we are more in a period of "hope and pray" or "Here we go, hold on to your hats."
Final thoughts
Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)