Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


The news today (late today) is all about the antidumping Preliminary Determination announcement made by the U.S. Department of Commerce. China hit hard (they don’t participate as they think they are going to get hit no matter what), Taiwan nothing and the others (Korea, India and Italy) were hit with modest AD duties.

The battle is not over and these are not the final numbers. We still have US DOC Final Determinations and the ITC Final Ruling which will both come in late spring 2016. Understanding these rulings and how they will impact your business is part of our Leadership Summit Conference which I hope you are all planning on attending… If not, call me (800-432-3475) and I will give you a dozen reasons or more on why your company would be well served in attending. Early bird rates have been extended to January 9th.

A reminder that we will not publish an Executive level newsletter until next Tuesday due to the Christmas Holidays. We will publish a Premium issue tomorrow (Wednesday).

I may also publish a single special article with more information about the CORE (corrosion resistant) AD ruling and what it means either tomorrow or shortly after Christmas.

Enjoy the Christmas Holidays with family and friends.

As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

I’ve had discussions with some of you lately about where and when sheet prices might bottom. Some of you say that hot-rolled (HR) coil prices won’t fall below $800 per short ton (st). Others tell me that bigger buyers aren’t interested unless they can get something that starts with a six. Obviously a lot depends on whether we're talking 50 tons or 50,000 tons. I've even gotten some guff about how the drop in US prices is happening only because we’re talking about it happening.

Final thoughts

We’ve all heard a lot about mill “discipline” following a wave of consolidation over the last few years. That discipline is often evident when prices are rising, less so when they are falling. I remember hearing earlier this year that mills weren’t going to let hot-rolled (HR) coil prices fall below $1,000 per short ton (st). Then not below $900/st. Now, some of you tell me that HR prices in the mid/high-$800s are the “1-800 price” – widely available to regular spot buyers. So what comes next, and will mills “hold the line” in the $800s?