• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    February 29, 2016

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    The US Department of Commerce provided the domestic steel industry a “win” according to early reaction to the just released preliminary determination of antidumping (AD) against China, Brazil, Japan, Russia, India, Korea and the United Kingdom. I have to imagine some will be surprised at the high penalties assigned to a number of countries (see article on the subject in this issue for complete details). One of the mills involved told SMU this evening that the ruling was “bad news” for their company. When asked if their mill would stop shipping cold rolled to the United States we were told, “Yes, it’s over.”

    A warning to our readers, scrap prices are not going sideways in March. They are going higher. There appears to be support coming from Asia and Turkey as international prices are rising. We are also seeing support in Asia in the iron ore spot markets which just went above $50/dmt on 62% Fe fines for the first time in a number of months. Higher scrap prices, especially if they reach as high as $20 per ton will provide a reason for higher flat rolled prices. You should anticipate higher spot prices.

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Analysis

    November scrap prices rise as market nears settle

    November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.

    SMU scrap market survey results now available

    SMU’s November ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Scrap export market activity perks up

    There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.