Economy
World Trade Outlook Indicator Suggests Moderate Trade Expansion in Q2
Written by Sandy Williams
May 16, 2017
The World Trade Organization expects global trade to continue to expand moderately in second quarter 2017. The World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) rose to 102.2 and was the highest reading since May 2011.
Export orders, container shipping, and air freight recorded strong gains in recent months, signaling above-trend growth in merchandise trade volumes for the second quarter, according to WTO. Demand weakened for automotive products, electronics and agriculture raw materials.
“The latest reading is up slightly from the previous value of 102.0, which suggests that trade volume growth will be above trend in the first and second quarters of 2017 once data for these periods are available,” wrote WTO. “These results are broadly in line with the WTO trade forecast issued on 12 April, which foresaw a return to moderate trade growth this year after sluggish expansion last year.”
About the WTOI:
The WTOI is a leading indicator of world trade, designed to provide “real time” information on the trajectory of merchandise trade ahead of trade volume statistics. Combining a variety of trade-related measures, the WTOI provides an early signal of the current direction of world trade and where it is likely to go in the near future. A reading of 100 indicates trade growth in line with medium-term trends, while readings greater or less than 100 suggest above or below trend growth.
The WTOI is not intended as a short-term forecast, although it does provide a signal of trade growth in the near future. Its main contribution is to identify turning points and gauge momentum in global trade growth. It complements existing tools such as the WTO’s longer-term trade forecasts, and other statistical releases.
Sandy Williams
Read more from Sandy WilliamsLatest in Economy
Chicago Business Barometer falls back in April, remains in contraction
The Chicago Business Barometer declined in April, reversing March’s gains, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).
Fewer manufacturers optimistic about the economy
PMA’s April report shows that only 16% of surveyed manufacturers anticipate an increase in economic activity in the next three months (down from 23% in March)
Architecture billings continue to slide in March
Architecture firms said billings continued to decline in March, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.
Beige Book shows concerns about trade policy
Manufacturing was mixed, but two-thirds of districts said activity was little changed or had declined.
New York state manufacturing index drops again in April
Firms were pessimistic, with the future general business conditions index falling to its second lowest reading in the more than 20-year history of the survey