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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    Earlier today, I got a request from one of our readers looking for articles about Section 232 as they wanted to do an article on the subject for their customers. In responding to their inquiry, I performed two searches using the search box in the top righthand corner of our website. (I usually log in to my account first in case the articles retrieved are member-only access articles). Since the subject was Section 232, I used that as my first search and quite a few articles popped up. I also did a search using Lewis Leibowitz in the search box, since I knew that Lewis has been quoted and has written quite a bit on the subject for SMU. Whenever you are looking for an article on a specific subject, try out our search box as you may be surprised by how much you are able to find on the topic. Of course, you are always welcome to ask us a question by using the info@SteelMarketUpdate.com email address.

    As I mentioned in our steel prices article, I am concerned that what was expected to happen regarding tariffs or quotas on foreign steel is either not going to happen or is being watered down to such a degree that it will have minimal impact on supply and ultimately prices. Look for signs (tweets?) that President Trump starts reporting success at the G20 meeting with the steel agreement and that the threat of Section 232 has resulted in one-on-one negotiations with individual countries. The expectation now is NAFTA countries, Australia and European countries will not get hit. This is my opinion as of today, and with President Trump one needs to be nimble to see where things ultimately shake out. Stay tuned as my opinion may be quite different if the news changes tomorrow.

    Latest in Analysis

    November scrap prices rise as market nears settle

    November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.

    SMU scrap market survey results now available

    SMU’s November ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Scrap export market activity perks up

    There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.