Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


Our SMU team has been pretty lucky as those of us who live in Florida did not suffer significant damage to our homes. The Florida residents ended up escaping and being essentially unaffected by Hurricane Irma. However, Brett lives in Georgia and he lost power yesterday as a large tree took out the power line and blocked his street, as well. He has been stranded for more than a day as they wait for the power company to come cut the tree and replace the downed lines. Diana and are working toward being back up and running in our offices on Thursday as we move back from the Florida panhandle to Hobe Sound. We have been advised that our office building has no power or internet service, but our home office does. Thank you for your patience, and we will try to get caught up with any outstanding issues on Thursday and Friday of this week.

I have been advised that CRU is adjusting the zinc coating extra they are using in the .060″ G90 index from $78 per ton ($3.90/cwt) to $86 per ton ($4.30/cwt). SMU has not yet made the change for a number of reasons: not all of the mills have made the change. U.S. Steel’s website still references a $3.90/cwt G90 extra on .060″ minimum galvanized. We are also hearing mixed information from steel buyers. Some are saying that the new extras announced by their suppliers are being collected beginning with October orders, while others are reporting no change from their suppliers as some mills are waiting for the higher zinc costs to be in effect for three months before making the change. We will watch the extras closely and will make a change in our calculations when we think the time is appropriate. For those doing your own comparison between SMU and CRU galvanized, be aware of the extras difference.

We are going to take a look at galvanized extras in either Thursday or Sunday evening’s issue of SMU.

I want to take a moment to welcome all of the new members we have gotten over the past few weeks. I apologize for not reaching out to you sooner–our conference and a couple of hurricanes has kept us extra busy. I want you to know that if you have questions or would like to make a suggestion regarding a potential article, please feel free to contact me: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher

 

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

Final thoughts

SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday: