SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index: Uncertainty Wearing on Attitudes?

Both current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers remain at optimistic levels, though buyers’ confidence appears to have seen some erosion as measured by the three-month moving averages in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The index is designed to measure changes in buyers’ attitudes, which offers insight into their likely decision-making. Customer resistance to high steel prices and uncertainty over Trump administration trade actions may be taking a toll on buyers’ emotions.

Current sentiment, measured as a single data point, was at +68, up from +66 last month. Measured as a three-month moving average, which helps even out the highs and lows, the Current Sentiment 3MMA registered +67.50, down from +69.17 two weeks ago. The current 3MMA is at the lowest level seen since mid-December 2017 when it hit +65.50. The graphic below clearly shows the seasonal trend that we tend to see with our Sentiment Index has been broken. We are seeing an erosion in optimism during what is normally the most optimistic point during the calendar year. This is one of the reasons why SMU adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral this afternoon.