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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    Last night for me in Maine. It’s been a wonderful long weekend to escape some of the heat of Florida for a few days. I will be traveling most of the day tomorrow and I will be back in my office on Tuesday for the balance of the week before leaving for Minnesota.

    We will be sending out a very detailed look at our 2018 SMU Steel Summit Conference agenda and what we are expecting out of our speakers/panelists. We will begin the conference on Monday afternoon, Aug. 27, at 1:30 PM. The conference will be held in its entirety in the Georgia International Convention Center as there is remodeling work being done to the meeting facilities at the Marriott Gateway hotel next to the GICC. This means our two networking/cocktail parties will be held in the convention center from 4 PM to 5:30 PM on Monday (sponsored by SDI) and Tuesday (sponsored by Heidtman). There will be plenty of time to go to the networking events and then make it to your dinner reservation in downtown or Midtown Atlanta.

    Latest in Analysis

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.