SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Is Demand Easing?
Written by Tim Triplett
September 6, 2018
Lead times on most flat rolled steel products continue to shorten, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time the busier the mill. Shortening lead times suggest steel demand is easing. Lead times for hot rolled now average around just four weeks, cold rolled a bit more than six weeks, galvanized less than seven weeks, and Galvalume slightly more than seven weeks.
“We are back to normal. Lead times are no longer extended. But there are some outages to dance around,” said one buyer. “The mini’s are normal, whereas integrateds are still somewhat extended,” said another respondent. “The integrateds are longer than normal only because they have been forcing us to book further out,” added a third.
Hot rolled lead times now average 4.06 weeks, about where they were at this time last year. Current lead times for hot rolled are down from 4.62 weeks in mid-August and down from this year’s peak of 5.73 weeks in April.
Cold rolled lead times have shortened by a full week in the past two months. Cold rolled orders currently have a lead time of 6.33 weeks, down from 6.57 weeks a month ago and 7.33 weeks in early July. Last year at this time, CR lead times averaged 6.19 weeks. The 2018 peak for cold rolled was 8.19 weeks in early May.
The current lead time for galvanized steel is 6.81 weeks, down from 7.29 weeks one month ago, and down from the 2018 high of 8.46 weeks in early June. Galvanized lead times this time last year were 6.43 weeks.
At 7.13 weeks, Galvalume lead times are down from 7.88 weeks one month ago.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
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