• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    January 21, 2019

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    Another hectic day in the steel industry – at least for me. Steel buyers seemed to be taking a wait-and-see approach to the market at the moment, but this too will change (it always does). At the moment, I still have our Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward “Lower” spot prices over the next 30 days. The question in my mind is what will be the catalyst to move prices – here on the East Coast I don’t think that catalyst will be the announcements of up $40 by California Steel and USS/POSCO.

    John Packard Summit 18I did not have an opportunity to listen in on the Steel Dynamics earnings conference call this morning. One of the steel executives with whom I spoke late this afternoon told me that Mark Millett, CEO of SDI, was upbeat and optimistic about the prospects for 2019.

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Analysis

    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.