Economy
January at a Glance: Year Off to a Tenative Start
Written by Brett Linton
February 3, 2019
January got off to a tentative start as steel prices continued to decline, leaving buyers with a cautious perspective on the months ahead.
Steel Market Update’s Buyers Sentiment Index shows buyers slightly less optimistic than they were in November. Sentiment factors into buyers’ decision-making about such factors as purchasing, inventory levels, capital investment and hiring. The continued erosion in the three-month moving average reflects the high level of uncertainty in the market.
In January, spot market steel prices continued the slide that began last summer. The price for hot rolled dipped below $700 per ton and cold rolled approached $800 per ton. Even plate, which has been in short supply, has seen its price begin to weaken, and is now selling below $1,000 per ton. In the aggregate, steel prices dipped by more than 8 percent in January from the prior month.
Factoring into the declining steel prices are scrap prices that have also been trending downward. Shredded and prime scrap grades all saw declines in January, which is unusual. Scrap typically rises in January as winter weather tightens supplies and mills stock up for the stronger quarter ahead. Experts attribute the downturn to weak scrap demand overseas, which has impacted the export price.
On the demand side of the equation, most of the indicators remain positive. ISM’s Manufacturing Index showed continued growth in January with a reading of 56.6. Construction and automotive finished 2018 strong.
See the chart below for other key indicators in January.
To see a history of our monthly review tables, visit our website here.
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett LintonLatest in Economy
Second steel derivatives S232 inclusion window opens, business community voices concern
The US Department of Commerce announced that its second window for submitting applications for the inclusion of derivative steel and aluminum products in Section 232 tariffs is now open, according to the US Federal Register. September’s Inclusion Window Sept. 15 through Sept. 29, applicants can email requests for inclusions to the Defense Industrial Base Programs. The first […]
Steel Summit: ITR economist urges execs to prepare for growth, not recession
If the steel industry professionals who made it to the very final presentation of this year’s SMU Steel Summit were expecting another round of cautious forecasting, they were in for a surprise. Because what they got was a wake-up call.
ISM: Manufacturing growth remained down in August
US manufacturing activity remained muted in August despite a marginal gain from July's recent low, according to supply executives contributing to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report.
Steel Summit: Dr. Basu blames tariffs for riskier path ahead
Steel executives packed the main conference hall of the 2025 SMU Steel Summit on Tuesday, Aug. 26, to hear economist Dr. Anirban Basu lay out his blunt view of tariffs, inflation, and demand.
Steel Summit: Schneider sees SDI ‘on the edge of a very good run’
Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) President and Chief Operating Officer, Barry Schneider, remains bullish about the Fort Wayne, Ind.-based steelmaker’s position in the current market.