• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    SMU continues to pick up negative vibes through the analysis we currently are actively conducting on the flat rolled and plate steel markets. There is obviously something going on that is concerning buyers and sellers of steel. At the same time, one of the steel mills told me today that even though prices on their product are at low levels, their order book is quite strong. Hmmmm…. If you have received an invitation to participate in our questionnaire, please take a few minutes to answer our questions. We will be reporting what we learn later this week and over the weekend.

    I am in Cincinnati conducting our 29th Steel 101 workshop. The weather was exceptional today as we toured the Nucor Gallatin steel plant, a mill that is involved in a major transition. Nucor is expanding the Gallatin mill, adding another 1.5 million tons of capacity taking the mill up to 3.0 million tons per year. We toured the new PGAL (pickle galvanize line), which takes hot rolled through the pickle mill and then straight into the galvanized line. This is a totally new production experience for the Gallatin mill, which was only a hot rolled provider prior to Nucor purchasing the facility in 2014. There is a new electric arc furnace under construction, along with a new caster and other equipment. Quite impressive.

    Latest in Analysis

    Steel market chatter: Tight supply, strong demand keep sheet prices climbing

    In this week's Market Chatter, steel buyers point to tight supply and steady demand as reasons sheet prices could keep rising, with many expecting HRC to reach $1,400-1,449 per short ton in two months. Views on when the rally will peak are mixed, with some anticipating further increases while others mention softening demand and political uncertainty. Respondents also disagree on tariffs' impact. They say reshoring is generating activity but has yet to translate consistently into demand.

    Apparent steel supply remains historically high despite September dip

    The volume of finished steel that entered the US market eased 1% from August to September and held near a historically strong rate, according to SMU’s analysis of recently released Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Referred to as “apparent steel supply,” this measure is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports. It can be used as a proxy for domestic steel demand. Supply totaled 9.11 million short tons (st) in September, the fourth-highest rate recorded in the past four years. Supply has remained historically strong since May, when it surpassed the 9 million st mark for the first time in four years

    Imports fall back slightly in September, slide further in October

    Final import data for September from the US Commerce Department shows a slight decline from August’s 15-month high. And October’s license count suggests another month-on-month (m/m) decline in imports. September imports of 2,416,717 short tons (st) were down just 1% from 2,434,108 st in August, a 15-month high. October license data show a steeper 8% m/m fall to 2,214,730 st (Figure 1, left). August appears to have been the peak for the recovery in imports, which has been ongoing since February of this year, when we saw some of the lowest levels since 2020.

    Steel exports fall in September to lowest rate of the year

    US steel exports eased 3% from August to September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low since early 2025 and remain weak compared to volumes seen in prior years. In September, 615,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country, 2% below the average monthly export rate of the past twelve months. September trade was 3% higher than the same month of 2025, 19% lower than September 2024, 21% lower than September 2023, and 15% lower than September 2022. For context, exports fell to a five-year low of 469,000 st in December and reached a near-five-year high of 914,000 st in May 2023.

    Ferrous scrap market chatter this month

    Every month, SMU polls participants in the ferrous scrap market on a variety of topics, including prices. This month's survey results landed just as the November scrap market was starting to settle. Preliminary results show scrap prices rose across the board for all the products SMU tracks. Final prices will be in SMU later this week. As the final numbers come in, we'd like to share where survey respondents thought prices would be on busheling, shredded, and HMS scrap, as well as where they see prices heading over the next 60 days.