Final Thoughts
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/media/k2/items/src/bf870e594136649b688ee460db5616e9.jpg)
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 14, 2019
I thought John Ferriola’s comments at the World Steel Association would be of interest to our readers. Joe Innace of Platts interviewed Nucor’s Ferriola and reported him saying, “The rest of this year will be pretty flat. Going into next year, it’s really a crapshoot.” He told Platts Nucor’s downstream businesses have seen prices drop, but they still have good demand.
There is an international scrap conference in Budapest this week. I heard from one of my sources that the talk is for maybe one more month of lower scrap prices. This is different than what I have been hearing from some of the U.S. sources who believe prices will move sideways in November.
That’s something to think about in light of international events in Turkey and Syria and how the Trump administration may react to the pressure to apply sanctions on Turkey. If the government applies some real pressure on Turkey (raising steel tariffs back to 50 percent has essentially zero impact), Turkey could respond by blocking U.S. scrap from coming into their country. If that were to happen, scrap would move from the U.S. coast inland and probably negatively impact scrap prices here.
My opinion: the low end of our hot rolled range this week could very well be a “firm” low. You need tons to get there, and once order books are sufficiently full for the remainder of the year, I would expect those deals to disappear. Watch scrap pricing for November, your customers demand levels and steel mill lead times for keys as to where pricing will be headed come December lead times and 1Q 2020.
Another item to watch carefully—the General Motors strike may be coming to an end. That would be good news for the steel mills and could be the catalyst for the mills to announce steel price increases (remember 1962?).
I have mixed emotions about the mills’ ability to collect much of an increase if it were to be announced now. It might be better to go back to the old model of increase announcements just prior to Thanksgiving (mid-November). Again, this is my opinion and you should not base your purchasing decisions on just my opinion.
Our next Steel 101 workshop will be held in Ontario, Calif., on Jan. 7-8, 2020. We will tour the California Steel Industries mill in Fontana as part of our workshop. Information can be found on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel101
I will be in Pittsburgh on Wednesday and Thursday of this week attending Metalcon. If you are going to be at Metalcon, look me up as CRU/SMU will be exhibiting this year (CRU USA headquarters are outside of Pittsburgh).
Paige Mayhair will also be at Metalcon should you have questions about becoming a subscriber, need information about upgrading your membership, etc. You can also send her an email at Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/john-packard.png)
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/gears.png)
Final thoughts
SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/gears.png)
Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/gears.png)
Final thoughts
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/gears.png)
Final thoughts
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/11/SMU-Steel-Summit.png)
Final thoughts
There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!