Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 8, 2019
The domestic steel mills announced new $40 per ton ($2.00/cwt) price increases on flat rolled this past week. This is the second price increase on flat rolled over the past two months. The domestic mills, led by ArcelorMittal USA, announced $40 per ton spot base price increases on Oct. 24-25 and were able to collect some of that increase prior to the latest move.
The domestic flat rolled mills have tried to pump up spot prices on a few occasions over this calendar year. In January, the mills went out during the last week of the month with $40 per ton, and then followed it up four weeks later with another $40. These increases only caught hold for a short period of time before prices began moving lower again (dead cat bounce).
On the 24th and 25th of June, the mills tried to shift momentum and began with new $40 per ton price increases. Two weeks later they announced an additional $40 per ton, and then two weeks after the second increase they announced a third $40 per ton. As with the January/February increases, the uptick in pricing was short-lived (another dead cat bounce).
It is not yet known if the latest round of price increases will indeed stick and continue to move higher with lead times already into January. At this time, Steel Market Update’s Price Momentum Indicator is pointing toward higher spot prices over the next 30 days.
Plate also saw a $40 per ton price hike by Nucor last week. The domestic mills have been “toying” with plate pricing, but don’t seem to have found a united formula. Evraz announced higher plate prices on Oct. 28 and no other mill immediately followed. We have adjusted the SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral on plate to see if the mills will present a united front and hold for higher prices.
We still have room in our next Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshop. The workshop will be held in Ontario, Calif., and will include a tour of the California Steel Industries steel mill. You can find more details on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/Events/Steel101. You are also welcome to reach out to Events@SteelMarketUpdate.com and our events team can arrange registration, invoice you or answer questions you might have.
I will be in my office all this week. If you would like to speak with me, shoot me an email at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
Also, if you would like to renew your membership, upgrade or find information about the options we have, please reach out to Paige Mayhair at 724-720-1012 or by email: Paige@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
We joked in our last Final Thoughts that Wiley trade attorney Tim Brightbill – one of the nation’s leading experts on trade law and policy – would probably be revising his presentation on Trump, trade policy, and tariffs for the Tampa Steel Conference. He did. And even after those last-minute revisions, he actually got trumped […]

Final Thoughts
The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!

Final Thoughts
From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.

Final Thoughts
Trump made a clarification in a speech on Monday. Previously, he had declared the word “tariff” the most beautiful word in the dictionary. No longer.

Final Thoughts
President Donald Trump on Sunday hammered Colombia with 25% tariffs and threatened to increase them to 50%. Trump in a post on Truth Social said he took the action not because of a trade dispute but because the South American nation had refused to accept planes carrying deported immigrants. The president also cited "national security" concerns, just as he did to justify 25% Section 232 tariffs on steel in his first term. Even the 50% threat echoes his first term. Turkish steel, like that of most nations, was assessed a 25% tariff in March 2018. Trump doubled Turkey's tariff to 50% via a tweet in August of that year over a matter unrelated to steel.