CRU: Five Features of the Pandemic Recovery

By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor

The economy is in the midst of a recession triggered by a health crisis. That makes this recession unusual and different. Here we examine how this recession compares to previous recessions. From that we infer key features of the pandemic recovery. We conclude that demand in most commodity end-use sectors – construction and manufacturing – is likely to be more resilient than normal, because the Covid-19 recession is primarily a service sector recession. The automotive sector is an exception, however, and experiences a slower recovery in light of the structural challenges it faces with respect to climate policy.