Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 21, 2020
Last week Steel Market Update adjusted all of the flat rolled price momentum indicators from Neutral to Higher. We made the decision to move hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume to higher due to prices already beginning to track up from the low levels achieved over the past couple of weeks. We also made the move now as we are starting to capture lead times beginning to move out, and mills tightening negotiation flexibility over the past week to two weeks.
Momentum referenced as being Higher means we believe flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 days.
However, we are not of the opinion that prices will shoot higher from here, but rather make small moves as scrap prices tighten. We will be watching to make more sense as to what the true supply and demand balance is as new supply comes into the market.
NLMK USA being on strike at their Farrell, Pa., steel mill will help to tighten spot prices.
We continue to keep plate momentum as being neutral.
We will not have an SMU Community Chat Webinar this week due to the SMU Steel Summit Conference being conducted. After the conference has concluded, I will be taking my first extended vacation since I began SMU in August 2008. I will be out of the office until Monday, Sept. 21. I am going to try to disengage with work for a bit. This conference has taken a lot out of this old body of mine….
The 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference was probably the most difficult project I have done in many years. It was a team effort and I need to give credit to Nicky Coslett, Anna Chamberlain Webber, Paul Terry, Emma Phillips, Hayley Ward, Tom Willatt and many others from the CRU events team in London along with Jill Waldman, Ray Culley, Tim Triplett, Sandy Williams and Brett Linton on the SMU team. I also want to recognize the production/AV team at Rec Media that is working with London and me out of my house in Hobe Sound, Fla.
The photos to the left are of me recording some of the intros to the various programs last week. The second photo is some of the production crew here in my home earlier today (Sunday) as we prepare to launch early tomorrow morning.
If you like the show – let us know. Mario Briccetti will be doing video recordings of the reaction to the platform. Please reach out to Mario within the platform if you would like to say something on the record.
Enjoy the conference this week. We will not be writing a lot of stories about the conference as we want to save the show for those who registered.
The newsletters this week will be a little shorter than normal with all of our people focused on the conference (or maybe not depending on what is happening in the industry).
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO
John Packard
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Final thoughts
SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?
Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
Final thoughts
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
Final thoughts
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
Final thoughts
There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!