Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by Tim Triplett
September 9, 2020
Our futures contributor, Tim Stevenson of Metal Edge Partners, raises a good question in his column this week. With the mills moving steel prices higher, have buyers restocked enough to stay out of the market? “If so, service centers and end users can step away from spot buys and wait for prices to fall again. If, on the other hand, inventory levels are still too low, people may have no choice but to keep buying higher priced steel, providing more longevity to this upward price cycle.”
Steel Market Update’s latest market survey shows that 70 percent of service centers are comfortable with their inventory levels or are looking to reduce inventories. Only 30 percent say they are in a buying mode (see chart). We’ll be looking closely to see if those percentages change in next week’s survey. If not—if the escalating prices aren’t bringing more buyers in off the sidelines—that will say something about how long and how high prices may rise.
Welcome to David Schollaert, newly hired Deputy Editor at Steel Market Update. David brings a wide range of expertise to SMU’s reporting and analysis. He is the former Editor of Ryan’s Notes, a newsletter covering the global ferroalloys market, and he transitioned to Senior Editor of the CRU Prices Service following CRU’s acquisition of Ryan’s Notes in 2012. During his career, he has been a metals buyer as well as a journalist writing for metals buyers, so he understands both sides of how steel is bought and sold. He will contribute a new perspective and a new voice to SMU’s content, and we’re excited to add David to our team.
Don’t forget, those registered for the SMU Virtual Steel Summit have until the end of next week to use the conference platform and view the recorded presentations and exhibitors’ offerings one more time. But the platform will only remain live through Sept. 18.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
Tim Triplett, Executive Editor
Tim Triplett
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Final thoughts
SMU has heard from some larger buyers who have stepped back into the market to buy at prices that, if not at a bottom, they assess to be close to one. Is it enough to stretch out lead times and send prices upward again? Or do we continue to scrape along the mid-$600s per short ton (st) as we have been doing for most of the last month?
Final thoughts
Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves had some insightful things to say today about the steel market and about a conference we suspect might be Steel Summit.
Final thoughts
They say a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when you add in some commentary from respected peers in the steel industry to those pictures, that may shoot you up to five thousand words, at least. In that spirit, we’ve added some snapshots from our market survey this week, along with some comments from market participants.
Final thoughts
I thought we’d have more clarity this week on Section 232, Mexico, and a potential carve-out for steel melted and poured in Brazil. As of right now, the only official comment I have is from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR).
Final thoughts
There are just 40 days left until the 2024 SMU Steel Summit gets underway on Aug. 26 at the Georgia International Convention Center (GICC) in Atlanta. And I’m pleased to announce that it's official now: More than 1,000 people have registered to at attend! Another big development: The desktop version of the networking app for the event has officially launched!