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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    I began writing Steel Market Update as a way to use my experience and relationships from my 31 years of sales and management within the steel industry in order to assist the industry to make better buy/sell decisions. I wanted SMU to be a source of quality information as we ask the targeted questions of active industry sources, produced proprietary data and analysis, and add insights based on what we are seeing and hearing from active steel buyers and sellers on a daily basis. It was never my intention to make decisions for those actively involved, but to be a provider of market intelligence from which you can add your own experiences, your own market intelligence as well as data from other trusted sources within the greater steel and economic communities.

    John Packard Summit 18Over the years SMU expanded our publications, added steel training classes on how steel is made and sold (Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals and Steel 201), on HRC and scrap futures trading, and we produced the SMU Steel Summit Conference. More recently we have added free SMU Community Chat Webinars in order to help keep everyone in the industry aware of pressing issues affecting the steel industry.

    Latest in Analysis

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.