SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Persistently Longer
Written by Tim Triplett
November 24, 2020
Lead times for spot orders of hot rolled steel have extended by another half-week as demand persistently outpaces supplies. Lead times for steel deliveries continue to stretch with hot rolled now averaging nearly seven and a half weeks and coated steel orders around nine and a half weeks. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills are busy and less likely to discount prices.
According to Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week, current hot rolled lead times average 7.31 weeks, up from 6.82 two weeks ago. HR lead times have extended by a full month since hitting 3.25 weeks at the low point in April.
Cold rolled lead times are at 8.77 weeks, down slightly from 8.91 two weeks ago. Like hot rolled, cold rolled lead times are nearly four weeks longer than in late April.
Galvanized lead times now average 9.21 weeks, down a bit from 9.39 two weeks ago—also about four weeks longer than the low point this spring. Similarly, the current average Galvalume lead time is out to 9.58 weeks.
Plate lead times have seen the most change of late, extending to 7.00 weeks from 6.27 weeks in late November. Plate lead times have more than doubled since bottoming a 3.20 weeks in May. Plate demand appears to be improving, with SMU data showing plate prices on the increase.
Viewed as three-month moving averages to smooth out the volatility, hot rolled lead times have continued to extend to 6.54 weeks, cold rolled 8.22 weeks, galvanized 8.69 weeks, Galvalume 9.28 weeks and plate 5.78 weeks.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers who participated in this week’s SMU market trends analysis. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. Our lead times are meant only to identify trends and changes in the marketplace. To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Times data, visit our website here.
Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Sentiment tumbles on tariffs, uncertainty, soft demand
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index dropped to one of the lowest levels recorded in over five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment inched higher.
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Buyers report little change in sheet and plate lead times
Steel buyers report steady lead times for sheet and plate products, a soft-sideways trend we've seen since May.
SMU Survey: Mills remain flexible on pricing, buyers say
The majority of steel buyers responding to our market survey this week continue to say that mills are negotiable on new spot order prices. Negotiation rates have remained high since May.
Service centers: Mill orders improve in July
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) moved higher in July after rebounding the month prior. The shift comes after mill orders declined from March through May.