Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by Tim Triplett


With hot rolled steel fast approaching $1,000 a ton, it’s only a matter of time before prices begin to cut into demand. Some SMU sources already report early signs of a demand shift. Others are less concerned about the volume of orders than about where they will get the steel to fill them if supplies remain so tight.

“Auto is going full bore. Other industries are slowing due to the price,” said one exec. “I heard that mechanical contractors in California are beginning to postpone projects because of the high steel costs. They would rather furlough their employees until the ‘madness’ calms down, than pay so much more for materials than originally projected,” reported another observer. “Some mills are sold out for the first quarter and others are writing ‘sales plans’ for February shipments. We raised pricing to cover our replacement cost and customers went quiet,” said a third.

One service center exec from the Midwest told SMU he sees no easing of demand yet. “Customers are so anxious to get orders booked and confirmed. Our sense is that the mills are too far behind now for any near-term relief from new capacity.”

“No signs yet of slowing demand. Our business is very strong,” reported one Midwest manufacturer. “For the fourth time this year, we broke our all-time sales record for a month (November), week (second week of December), and day (Dec. 11). Customers have no choice but to pay higher prices.”

“I don’t see demand slowing until March at the earliest,” added another service center operator, “but when pricing hits $1,000, I’ve got to believe things will get strange(r). Companies won’t be able to get what they need to grow or even sustain business levels. Some may run out of credit lines. Others may be unable to compete with imports. We have lost spot business [because of availability issues]. We are struggling to keep up with our contract customers due to restrictions on volume and late deliveries. I don’t think we will see any impact from new capacity coming onstream until March or April. It may be a blessing that inventory is tight, because when this market turns, it will take no prisoners.”

Demand and pricing are “all over the board,” said another distributor, which makes it difficult to assess the situation. “The market is a mess with so few spot tons available. It’s very hard to tell which of our customers have been hedging and what is true demand.  We can’t get a feel for actual demand, as most of our customers report they are busy, but not busier than pre-COVID.  The disconnect between that and what the mills are seeing is extremely concerning. I expect the picture of what demand actually looks like will be clearer by mid-January. It wouldn’t surprise me if demand in the first half of January was a little slower, as many customers hedged against price increases. At the same time, mill lead times will come in a little and new capacity will become a reality. Hopefully we see better balance by February.”

Casting doubt on the staying power of demand is the widespread belief that steel prices can’t possibly stay this high for much longer. Many expect prices to peak and reverse course in the first or second quarter next year. “It feels like steel prices are at a point where people are starting to question if it makes sense to buy now for steel that won’t arrive until January or February,” said one exec. “With late deliveries and mills reporting strong February bookings, availability won’t improve until March or later. In the meantime, I would rather sell less than get stung with high-priced inventory when prices drop,” concluded another industry veteran, sharing some wisdom.

Many of you have been generating strong profits during 2020 and are looking for avenues to take expenses that are anticipated in 2021 and see if they can be applied against 2020 earnings. A number of companies are looking at our workshops and conferences, as well as sponsorships/exhibitions at our 2021 events, as a way of accomplishing this. We have a number of training programs for 2021 already open for registration. You can find information about dates, costs, etc., for our Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals Workshop, Steel Hedging 101: Introduction to Managing Price Risk, Steel Hedging 201: Advanced Strategies & Execution, by going to the following website: https://events.crugroup.com/steel101/home

If you are interested in attending the Tampa Steel Conference (virtual for 2021), you can learn more here: https://www.tampasteelconference.com/

We are going to try to get our SMU Steel Summit Conference for 2021 (live) registration up and running prior to the end of the year. We will provide more information as soon as it is available. The dates on this conference are Aug. 23-25, 2021, at the Georgia International Convention Center. Please note, we do not yet have a room block with the Marriott hotels, however, I did hear from someone today who booked the Renaissance at $149/night.

If you are interested in sponsorship or exhibition opportunities for either the SMU Steel Summit Conference or Tampa Steel Conference, please contact Jill Waldman at Jill@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone: 303-570-6570.

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

Tim Triplett, Executive Editor

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.