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    CRU: The Rotation of Consumer Demand

    Written by Jumana Saleheen


    By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook

    Our forecast for global growth in 2021 remains unchanged, with downward revisions to Europe, India and China being offset by upward revisions to other countries, principally the U.S. Although risks remain, we remain confident that the world will see a strong recovery in 2021. However, as demand rotates from goods to services, commodity markets may not feel the full benefit of the fastest rate of global growth for 40 years.

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    CRU: Futures contract reaches record open interest as prices rise

    Open interest on CME Group’s hot-rolled (HR) coil futures contract typically builds throughout the month before dropping at the end of the month alongside contract settlement. Analysis in this report is based on an early month view of this open interest as well as prices. Notably, open interest for the HR coil contract is currently at a record high of 849,240 short tons (st) or 42,462 contracts.  Open interest is up 13.8% m/m and 66% higher from the 511,480 st of open interest a year ago. We have found that open interest often rises alongside higher physical prices and that has proven true in this current market environment. Physical prices continue to rise, supported by not only rising demand and domestic production issues, but also on government-restricted imports.

    CRU: HR coil futures re-price 2027 forward curve

    CME Group’s hot-rolled coil futures have jumped higher as the loss of a reheating line at a large Southern mill have renewed domestic production issues. At market close on Oct. 12, the Q4'26 futures are now pricing in $1,295 per short ton (st) for HR coil, a month-over-month (m/m) increase of $63/st. For 2027, the forward curve is up $80 /st vs. September, at $1,207/st. For November 2026 through March 2027, prices are at an average just above $1,300/st.