Foreign vs. Domestic HRC Price Analysis: Foreign Advantage Shrinking

Hot rolled imports continue to tempt U.S. buyers with potential discounts of 14-23% over domestic prices, according to Steel Market Update’s latest foreign versus domestic price comparison. Foreign hot rolled steel prices are now theoretically $177-283 per ton cheaper than domestic steel, after taking freight costs, trader margins and tariffs into consideration. However, this foreign advantage has been declining since the September/October 2021 highs.

The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). This is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margins, and other costs can fluctuate, ultimately influencing the true market spread. This compares the SMU U.S. hot rolled weekly index to CRU hot rolled weekly indices for Germany, Italy, and Far East Asian ports.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a digital operations analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.