Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 25, 2022
We hosted the greatest conference we have ever held over the past few days. This year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference smashed attendance records with 1,291 registered attendees. This does not include the dozens who networked in the lobbies of the four hotels surrounding the Georgia International Convention Center.
It was a wonderful and emotional experience for me. After 45 years in the steel industry, it was time to personally say goodbye to those who helped my career, and to those who have supported Steel Market Update over the years. I want to thank all of you who approached me during the conference and shared your stories about coming to the conference, interacting with Steel Market Update, or who were customers when I was actively selling steel. Your kind words were very much appreciated and warmed my heart and soul.
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As with every SMU Steel Summit Conference, we had some surprises for the audience. There were also some for me. The SMU and CRU teams made sure that I knew how much my work has been appreciated. I want to thank the CRU Events Team: Nicola “Nicky” Coslett, Emma Phillips, Paul Terry, Marlea Stockenberg, Kieran Proverbs, Sabine Kilgus, and Jill Waldman.
I also want to thank the Steel Market Update team who not only assisted with the conference but who also managed to publish Tuesday evening’s issue without missing a beat: Michael Cowden, David Schollaert, Brett Linton, Laura Miller, and Becca Moczygemba. Rest assured, the SMU newsletter is in good hands.
Although I am retiring, I will remain visible within the greater steel community. My plans are to attend the 2023 Tampa Steel Conference, which will be held in Tampa on February 5-7. Work has already begun to put together a fabulous program for the Tampa event.
Plans are also underway for the 2023 edition of the SMU Steel Summit Conference. Mark your calendars and block off August 21-23. The conference will be held at the Georgia International Convention Center in Atlanta, just as we have for the past half dozen years.
One week from today, I will be working on my golf game (invitations to play are always appreciated). I will continue writing the book I have been working on for my children. I will be planning trips both here in the US and internationally. I will be working with Reibus, where I sit on the board of directors, to see what I can do to assist their growth. I also sit on the board of trustees for Hamline University. So I will continue to be busy as I transition to the next stage of my life.
Over the next few issues, I intend to tell a few stories, and to provide some color as to what issues I think companies, and individuals within the industry, need to think about.
For those of you who would like to reach out to me I have provided both my business and personal email addresses as well as my phone number below.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us associated with Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Founder
770-596-6268
John Packard
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Final thoughts
Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)
Final thoughts
Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)
Final thoughts
Everybody has a plan… until they’ve dealt with volatility in the HRC market. While Mike Tyson’s original quote was about getting punched in the mouth, it’s unlikely the ex-champ has gone many pricing rounds with hot-rolled coil.
Final thoughts
Hold-rolled (HR) prices held roughly steady this week after slipping for much of April. I don’t have any spicy quotes to offer about mostly flat prices. Besides, a lot of the questions I’ve gotten recently have been about demand. Some of you tell me that it’s still stable or improving. Others tell me that it’s suddenly dried up.
Final thoughts
What a difference a month makes. In late March, it seemed like the US hot-rolled (HR) coil market was poised to cycle upward. Large buyers had re-entered the market and placed big orders earlier in the month. Several outages were underway or upcoming. And expectations were that lead times would continue to extend. Cliffs said […]