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    HRC futures: Changing futures dynamics

    Written by Bradley Clark & Gaby Ain


    What a difference a few weeks make…. As this is our first column after the new year, it is quite interesting to observe how different the steel world looks at the end of January vs. the end of December. 

    The first few days of 2024 on the futures market provided bulls with the much expected “new year exuberance” bounce, with prices along the curve pushing up substantially. Well, that optimism was dashed as the first week of the year wore on, with sellers entering the market throwing cold water on sentiment, plunging prices by over $200 per short ton (st) over the next week. Subsequently, we have seen the worst of that subside, with February and March both rallying since then.

    Gaby Ain

    Read more from Gaby Ain

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    Plate supply squeeze tightens as demand presses higher

    The domestic plate market is showing few signs of relief for steel buyers. Lead times are stretching well beyond seasonal norms, spot availability has all but evaporated, and mills are drawing hard lines on contract volumes heading into 2027 negotiations. And the supply squeeze will likely intensify in a market that some industry sources say is structurally undersupplied because of stringent US trade and tariff policies. Imports have been arriving in larger volumes, and the expectation is they will continue to tick higher into 2027. The big question is whether those foreign tons will arrive in volumes sufficient to provide the relief steel consumers want.