SMU Data and Models

SMU survey: Current Sentiment Index falls, Future Sentiment rises
Written by Ethan Bernard
March 15, 2024
SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down while the Future Sentiment Index ticked up, according to our most recent survey data.
Every other week, we poll steel buyers about market sentiment. The indices measure how steel buyers feel about their companies’ chances of success in the current market as well as three to six months down the road. (Our website has historical data going back to 2008.)
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index stood at +57 this week, down slightly from +58 two weeks earlier (Figure 1). This is the lowest the index has been since the start of 2024 when it stood at +56.

SMU’s Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures buyers’ feelings about business conditions three to six months in the future. The index increased two points this week to +70 (Figure 2). Prior to this rise, the Future Sentiment Index hadn’t touched +70 since the end of November.

Measured as a three-month moving average, the Current Sentiment 3MMA fell to +61.67 from +63.67 two weeks prior. (Figure 3).

This week’s Future Sentiment 3MMA slightly increased to +63.67 vs. +63.33 at our previous market check (Figure 4).

What SMU respondents had to say:
“Investing in 2024 to be ready for growth in 2025-28.”
“As a reseller, margin compression is an issue. Too many irresponsible wholesalers and distributors are liquidating inventory below replacement cost.”
“With prices declining, less import buys.”
“We are prepared with a balance of contract tons, spot tons, and offshore.”
“We hope to regain market share in the second half of the year.”
“Hopefully, prices will bottom out soon and increase, creating an import buying market.”
“We have a good backlog.”
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior.
Positive readings run from +10 to +100. A positive reading means the meter on the right-hand side of our home page will fall in the green area, indicating optimistic sentiment. Negative readings run from -10 to -100. They result in the meter on our homepage trending into the red, indicating pessimistic sentiment. A reading of “0” (+/- 10) indicates a neutral sentiment (or slightly optimistic or pessimistic), which is most likely an indicator of a shift occurring in the marketplace. Sentiment is measured twice per month via SMU surveys. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.

Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.

SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.

SMU Scrap Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices log declines
However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.