SMU Data and Models

SMU's March at a glance
Written by David Schollaert
April 11, 2024
Steel prices continued to ease lower in early March – a trend seen since mid-January – before showing signs of bottoming and inflecting up.
The SMU Price Momentum Indicator for sheet products shifted from lower to neutral mid-way through the month after Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs, and ArcelorMittal all targeted new base minimums between $825-840 per short ton (st) during the first week of March.
Like sheet, the Price Momentum Indicator on plate shifted from lower to neutral in March, though not until the last week of the month.
We saw hot-rolled coil (HRC) tags start the month around $815/st. They edged down $20/st by March 19 before moving back up to $810/st to close out the month. Tandem products saw similar dynamics play out during the month, while plate prices were largely stable, easing just $10/st over the second half of March.
Raw material prices were stable to down across the month. Busheling scrap prices declined for a third consecutive month, slipping $45/gross ton from February. Shredded and HMS scrap prices were also down similarly. You can read our recent outlook on the April scrap market here. LME zinc and aluminum spot prices were largely flat, edging up halfway through the month before ticking back down. You can view and chart multiple products in greater detail using our Interactive Pricing Tool.
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index remained positive but fell to a 17-month low at the end of the month. Future Buyers’ Sentiment followed the same trend, slipping back down after shooting up to a near-six-month high the month prior.
Hot rolled lead times averaged five weeks in March, ticking up slightly throughout the month. Lead times for each product we track neared lows last seen in September of last year before turning upward slightly to close out March. SMU expects lead times to remain largely in a holding pattern in April due to flat demand. A history of HRC lead times can be found in our Interactive Pricing Tool as well.
About 70% of HRC buyers reported that mills were willing to negotiate on prices through late March. Buyers have reported mills’ willingness to negotiate declined following new pricing targets by most mills.
Key indicators of steel demand continue to show some signs of weakness overall, with most nowhere near the bullish levels seen in recent years.
See the chart below for other key metrics for March:


David Schollaert
Read more from David SchollaertLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.