SMU Data and Models
SMU survey: HR, plate lead times slip as CR extends
Written by Ethan Bernard
April 25, 2024
Hot-rolled coil and plate lead times contracted this week, with most other products remaining flat, according to SMU’s most recent survey data.
Cold-rolled products, however, saw lead times extend 0.1 weeks to an average of 7.5 weeks vs. two weeks earlier. Hot rolled and plate lead times both contracted 0.3 weeks from our last market check.
Table 1 below details current lead times. It displays the change from two weeks ago, a month ago, and three months earlier. It also shows the three-month trend.
Survey results
This week, 11% of survey respondents thought lead times would be extending two months from now, 70% thought they would be flat, and 19% expected them to contract.
Here’s what respondents are saying:
“Along with pricing bottoming before two months, lead times will come back up.”
“Lead times are flat or adjusting down now. In two months, still flat.”
“New normal.”
“We are expecting more domestic capacity (post-outages) and more imports.”
“Some outages will keep lead times flat. If not for the outages, lead times would be very short. Can still get quick responses from the mini-mills today.”
“In the midst of contraction.”
Figure 1 below tracks lead times for each product since April 2022.
3MMA lead times
Looking at the three-month moving averages (3MMA) of lead times can smooth out the variability seen in our biweekly readings.
On a 3MMA basis, lead times contracted slightly for all products SMU surveys: with hot rolled at 5.25 weeks, cold rolled 7.52 weeks, galvanized 7.48 weeks, Galvalume 7.54 weeks, and plate at 5.68 weeks.
Figure 2 graphs the 3MMA for each product back to April 2020.
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data, visit our website. If you’d like to participate in our survey, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment tumbles as caution increases
SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.
Service centers: Mill orders down further in April
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times edge lower
Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.
SMU Survey: Most buyers say price negotiations back on the table
Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.
SMU Scrap Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices log declines
However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.