Final Thoughts

Final thoughts
Written by Brett Linton & Ethan Bernard
May 2, 2024
Everybody has a plan… until they’ve dealt with volatility in the hot-rolled (HR) coil market. While Mike Tyson’s original quote was about getting punched in the mouth, it’s unlikely the ex-champ has gone many pricing rounds with HRC.
SMU’s HR coil prices were flat this week. As noted in our pricing article on Tuesday, some sources think published prices by Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs will result in less volatile pricing swings. Others think those prices could push prices down in the near term. There are a lot of plans out there. Whatever the results are, it’s going to be interesting to watch.
In this (perhaps brief) time of wait and see, what will people be talking about at the water cooler? (Or whatever the virtual version of a water cooler is these days.) The upcoming election? The twists and turns in the sale of U.S. Steel? AHMSA’s restart? Evraz NA sale? Well, we thought we’d like to throw our hat in the ring and add a little diversion.
So, below, for the pleasure of our readers, we’ve included a little steel crossword to test your knowledge, and the knowledge of your co-workers. Feel free to get competitive, but remember to keep it friendly (click here to attempt).

Please note: For anyone looking for an edge in their steel knowledge or for new hires aiming to turbocharge their steel learning, nothing beats our Steel 101 course. The next one will be June 11-12 in Fort Wayne, Ind., and includes a mill tour of SDI Butler. You can register here.

Brett Linton
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Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.

Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.

Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.

Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?

Final Thoughts
With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.