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    Wittbecker on Ali: The aluminum tariff dilemma

    Written by Greg Wittbecker


    We are quickly approaching Inauguration Day. The market still has no definitive clue as to how the Trump administration will execute on its threat to apply universal tariffs to all imports. Compounding this are the threats to apply 25% duties against our USMCA partners – Canada and Mexico.

    A Washington Post article by Jeff Stein on Jan. 6 seemed to have temporarily calmed some of the angst. The Post reported that Trump aides were looking at plans to apply tariffs more narrowly to sectors identified as critical imports. You ask, “What are critical imports?” These are imports deemed important for national or economic security. This would include steel, aluminum, copper, rare earths, and battery metals.

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    AMU: Edward Meir’s week in review and thoughts for the week of Oct. 12, 2026

    Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.