Final Thoughts

Sure enough, Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday afternoon that he had given his blessing to a “partnership” between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel. And over the weekend we had market-moving news on tariffs, this time involving the EU.

In some respects, it’s massive news. USS shares surged on Trump’s post. And speculation swirled about what the deal might mean for other mills, notably Cleveland-Cliffs. What if Cliffs’ Pittsburgh-based rival were to build a new mill or restart idled capacity? Because those are things that could happen with the backing of Japan’s Nippon Steel, the world’s fourth largest steelmaker.

In other respects, it’s the kind of uncertainty we’ve gotten used to since the start of the second Trump administration.

Case in point: Trump on Friday threatened 50% tariffs on the EU starting on June 1. Then the deadline was rolled back on Sunday to July 9. We’ve seen the tariffs-on, tariffs-off movie before – whether that’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico or “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Even with the Nippon-USS news, there is familiar degree of uncertainty. Is the deal really a deal this time? I ask because at the beginning of the year, the assumption was that the deal was dead amid a cloud of acrimony and potential lawsuits.

Also, how does this “golden share” the US government reportedly has in USS factor into things? Should we expect to see future foreign investments in the US feature a similar mechanism?

And I ask this half jokingly, half seriously. Have we hit peak “golden” with a golden dome, a new golden age, and golden stakes? Or is there more gold to come? I guess we’ll find out during Trump’s rally in Pittsburgh on Friday.

If I were an investor in USS, I might want to know the details of this golden deal a little sooner. I mean, on a very basic level, when is this deal – whether an acquisition, a partnership, or a gold-filigreed pact – expected to close?

As far as the day-to-day goes, there is not much news to report when it comes to sheet and plate prices. Which is what you’d expect the day after Memorial Day.

Prices continue to drift sideways or a little lower. SMU’s price assessments reflect that. So does Nucor’s latest list price, which is down $10 per short ton (st) from last week and which marks the fourth consecutive week of declines.

Take hot-rolled coil, for example. Very large buyers (thousands of tons) might be able to secure numbers in the high $700s. Most mills are somewhere between $800 and $900 for standard spot buys. The variance depends mostly on the steelmaker and the tonnage.

But despite all the pessimism in the market, the mid-$800s is still a pretty good price for HR by historic standards. Recall as recently as last summer, SMU’s HR price dropped into the low $600s on average.

It might be a little early to start talking about optimism in the market. But maybe we can talk about potential stability – especially if scrap prices firm. As Stephen Miller reports, there is growing optimism that the ferrous scrap market will find a bottom in June after falling sharply in April and May.

Also, flat-rolled steel import levels have been running low. I went back through government data. We’ve averaged approximately 876k short tons (795k metric tons) per month since May 2019. May 2025 data isn’t complete yet. But preliminary April data is at approximately 716k st, well below that average. And May to date is trending lower as well.

Of course, there are two ways to read that. If demand is OK, domestic mills should stand to benefit when buyers come back into the market to restock. That’s the more optimistic take.

The more pessimistic take is that imports tend to tail off along with domestic shipments when the market falls on hard times. Meanwhile, raw steel output is at an eight-month high heading into what is typically one of the slowest times of the year.

I’ll be curious to see what things look like when we update mill negotiation rates and lead times on Thursday, as well as our buyers’ sentiment indices on Friday.

In the meantime, don’t forget to tune into the Community Chat on Wednesday with Barry Zekelman, executive chairman and CEO of Zekelman Industries. You can sign up for the webinar here.

Zekelman is one of the biggest steel buyers in North America. I’m curious to get his thoughts on tariffs, especially Section 232 on downstream goods, because Barry’s company makes a lot of steel-intensive downstream products.

I’m also interested to hear what he thinks on the next wave of new capacity that might hit the US market. That list includes not only the Nucor sheet mill being built in West Virginia but also Posco’s planned mill in Louisiana and potentially a new Nippon-USS mill as well (assuming the golden deal closes).

Finally, where is the workforce not only for those mills but also for (one hopes) new downstream manufacturing plants going to come from? Of course, we’ll take your questions too. So please bring some good ones to the Q&A!

Editor’s note: Barry will also be featured during a Fireside Chat at SMU Steel Summit on Aug. 25-27 at the Georgia International Convention Center in Atlanta. You can find the full agenda and register here.