Final Thoughts

Also, whatever we write will probably be out of date by the time we type it.

What is clear is that there is a lot to watch out for, especially these days, as far as international shipping, the flow of scrap, and the like, goes.

On the lookout

There are several things to be careful about as we attempt to transact business in the current market fray.

Firstly, do not overcommit your assets or business strategy to newly minted policies that can change at the decision of one man or one government department at any time. 

A prime example would be the US tariffs. They are implemented, then delayed, or they are suspended.  When we thought they would be fixed at a certain percentage, the next day, they were doubled. Resist the temptation to go all in on a policy that initially benefits you. The next day, they could be going against your interests.

Be aware of geopolitical events that may impact your markets or increase your costs. The large increase in ocean freight rates from the US could have drained the profits of exporters if they had not paid attention to the overall geopolitical and economic situation.

Another example is the upcoming port fee increases for Chinese-built ships and the fleets containing them. Although this has been watered down, thankfully, it may reduce the supply of ships available for international trade.

Expect the unexpected, no matter how unlikely you think certain things can happen. Did anyone think the US and Israel would be bombing Iran a month ago? Maritime freight rates have increased for cargoes originating in Southeast Asia and destined for the MENA region. Did anyone think that DRI, pig iron, and autos would be subject to tariffs?  

Don’t underestimate the level of tariff retaliation by other nations and the collateral damage they can cause. An example is the reduced steel production in other countries as a result of tariffs and protectionism. This affects the flow of products like scrap and other ferrous raw materials.  

Rough waters ahead?

We’ve said before we wanted to refrain from writing “buckle up.” In this case, though, perhaps the better analogy is: When on the water, be sure to have access to a life preserver. And if you’re on land, map out your nearest shelter, or at least be ready to stop, drop, and roll. Or is that for a fire?

Regarding fire, perhaps the best course of action in such times is to hold onto your common sense—and keep your powder dry.

Or, maybe, hope against hope, everything will end up turning out A-OK. Stranger things have happened…