SMU's Week in Review: July 4-11

Sheet and plate prices fell this week, with customers buying mostly hand-to-mouth amid demand and tariff uncertainty. Nucor held its hot-rolled coil list price at $910/st, while spot HRC prices slipped $10 from the week prior to $870/st, on average, based on SMU’s survey of the market. Plate prices fell $30/st.

Buyers reported that domestic mills were more open to negotiating pricing on new steel orders this week than they were last month.

CRU expects a restocking cycle in most parts of the world to support prices over the next few months, with Q3 forecast to be the lowest point in the current sheet price cycle.

Busheling scrap traded sideways in July, though looming tariffs on pig iron and Canadian scrap threaten to elevate procurement costs and compress margins. The spread between HRC and busheling scrap prices widened marginally again.

Buyer sentiment splits

Steel buyers are cautiously optimistic. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index dipped to +33, while the Future Sentiment Index climbed to its highest level since March. Survey responses revealed pricing pressure, unease over trade unpredictability, and faint hope for a summer rate cut.

Lead times stabilize

Mill production times for sheet products appear to have stabilized, with HRC at 4.5 weeks and plate at 5.2 weeks on average.

Trade & tariffs

There was another round of tariff announcements this week, and the potential for even more tariff actions in the coming weeks. Wiley international trade attorneys Alan Price and Ted Brackemyre walk us through it all here.

The US has levied a 50% tariff on Brazilian steel and hinted at a 35% hike on Canadian scrap. Section 232 tariffs and uncertain trade negotiations are stirring unease across supply chains. These shifts could push up busheling prices and strain domestic sourcing.

M&A movement

Radius Recycling is now owned by Japan’s Toyota Tsusho, which completed its $1.34 billion acquisition of the Portland, Ore.-based company this week.

AZZ Inc. announced it will be expanding its presence in the Midwest with the acquisition of Ohio’s Canton Galvanizing LLC.

Company news

Canada’s Algoma Steel fired up the first of two new EAFs this week, producing its first steel and marking a major milestone in its transformation from blast furnace to EAF steelmaking.

Greenshoots of demand

The Dodge Momentum Index hit a record high in June, as nonresidential construction planning improved alongside strength in warehouse, recreational, and data center planning.

AZZ Inc. executives said imports of pre-painted steel are falling off dramatically, taking a direct hit from tariffs. And with customers pulling inventory down, the coil coater is seeing signs of true demand ramping up.