SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times hold steady

The average lead time for hot-rolled coil is four and a half weeks. Cold-rolled and coated products are all in the low six-week range. Plate is just under five and a half weeks.

Table 1 summarizes current lead times and recent changes by product (click to expand)

Compared to our mid-August market check, three of our lead time ranges shifted this week:

• The longest cold rolled lead time considered decreased from nine weeks to eight.
• The longest galvanized lead time considered also decreased from nine weeks to eight.
• The shortest Galvalume lead time considered increased from four weeks to five.

Buyers predict more stability

Over half of buyers (63%) expect lead times to remain stable over the next two months, in line with responses two weeks prior. Of the remainder, 31% foresee longer lead times in the near future (up from 28%), and the remaining 6% anticipate contractions (down from 10%).

Here are some of the comments we collected:

“Domestic lead times are brutal right now. I don’t see fall outages fixing that too much.”

“Between planned outages and a need to hold the line going into Q1, mills will be forced into showing restraint.”

“[In two months] lead times will be roughly the same as they are right now.”

“Potentially extending due to outages.”

Trends

To highlight broader trends, lead times can be calculated on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis (Figure 2). All four of the sheet product 3MMAs were steady to down for the ninth-consecutive survey, while the plate 3MMA broke its four-survey decline streak and increased.

Average lead times by product across the last three months were: hot rolled at 4.4 weeks, cold rolled at 6.3 weeks, galvanized at 6.1 weeks, Galvalume at 6.2 weeks, and plate at 5.4 weeks.

Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Consult your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data, visit our website. If you’d like to participate in our survey, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.