Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we asked our internal AI tool to analyze the responses we collected and highlight five key themes. Here’s what it found:

• Demand mostly weak-to-stable at low levels; few report slight, inconsistent upticks.
• Prices expected flat to slightly higher; outages and low imports support temporarily.
• Imports broadly unattractive due to tariffs, long lead times, policy uncertainty.
• Inventory moving slower year-over-year; cautious stocking and lean inventory strategies persist.
• Structural concerns: overcapacity, potential consolidation, long-term supply exceeding demand.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact david@steelmarketupdate.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Slowly moving upward due to supply disruptions from low imports and domestic outages.”

“Higher due to mill outages and downward trend of willingness to negotiate spot prices. Also, rate cut demand lag should be released by then.”

“HRC will stabilize between $750-800 per ton with some of the usual volatility, then move up in January.”

“I expect an uptick in price due to the various maintenance outages.”

“Slightly upward in the fourth quarter.”

“Prices will rise after bottoming out soon.”

“Increase by 5-10% by year end.”

“I think prices have bottomed out on this cycle and I think we’re seeing a few signs of a slight rebound in manufacturing activity. So I think the mills will try to at least hold the line on prices, if not raise prices with any more meaningful opportunity to increase prices.”

“Mills are trying to push prices up, some are trying to ask $1,000 per ton on galvanized. I highly doubt they get any transactions at this level.”

“Stay steady, possibly going up some before contract negotiations.”

“Flat, weak economy.”

“Stable to slightly lower, demand is still not online.”

“Overall, lower over the next 3 months. We aren’t buying the rumors of a hike on the back of low imports and fall outages. The domestics might try, but it won’t last in earnest.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand is still very soft, stagflation is starting to set in. Pricing might stabilize but demand is very weak.”

“Declining, we are all fighting for the same tons on the service center side it remains a buyer’s market for now.”

“Demand remains weak. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and his disruption to trade flows and 50% tariffs are hurting manufacturing costs.”

“Declining, tariff effects.”

“Demand continues to be very (VERY!) lackluster. I don’t see that changing anytime soon either.”

“Demand is low but will be stable for the next quarter.”

“Stable to weakening due to uncertainty on tariffs and policies.”

“Stable at low volumes.”

“Steady as she goes, some weeks higher, some weeks lower. Inconsistent days but consistency overall.”

“It’s stable at a lower rate than desired, but profitable.”

“Demand is improving weekly. Some hedging is starting to take place.”

“Ever so slightly increasing.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is still moving slower than last year at this time.”

“Slower, softened demand.”

“Slower due to lower demand and tariffs.”

“Slower, weak economy.”

“Much slower due to low demand.”

“Steel is slower, aluminum is faster.”

“Inventory is moving at about the same pace, but we’re purposefully keeping much less.”

“Around the same, maybe slightly slower, but not meaningfully.”

“About the same.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

The majority of buyers (60%) say their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. Of the remainder, 32% are unsure how the policies will affect them, and just 8% believe the tariffs are helping their business. Comments included:

“So far, no.”

“His policies are stopping imports and driving us into recession.”

“They continue to drive confusion, not new spending.”

“Yes – Domestic price protection, price isn’t scaring away demand. It’s lack of cheap money due to high interest rates. Demand will begin to release. PATIENCE.”

“No, costs have increased due to tariffs and the cost of raw materials.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Nearly half of respondents (42%) report seeing no signs of reshoring. Among the remainder, 31% say it is too early to tell, and 27% indicate they have seen some evidence. Comments included:

“Very little impact, but we are optimistic about 2026 and beyond.”

“I think we’re seeing projects happen that were already in the works. Everything else is just headlines and fluff.”

“I’m starting to hear about a few more metal fabrication reshoring opportunities.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Imports are not attractive. Costs are too high and longer lead times make it risky. And who knows if Trump will change his mind on tariff rates on a whim.”

“No, tariffs have taken care of that.”

“No, due to long lead times.”

“Nope, the lead time and pricing on imports is pretty much a non-starter.”

“No, landed about the same cost due to tariffs.”

“Only in rare situations are foreign opportunities more attractive.”

“No, only a limited number of offers from one importer look attractive, all other sources are well above domestic prices.”

“Only on .012” or lighter for painted material.”

“Yes, always and in spite of tariffs.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Will Oregon Steel, JSW and Cliffs consolidate? Can they survive if they don’t?”

“Additional consolidation may be on the horizon providing remaining domestic suppliers even more control.”

“What to do about domestic steel making overcapacity.”

“Market impact to Cliffs closing three mills.”

“I have major concerns about supply>demand, especially over the next 5-10 years. I think we’ll see a collapse in pricing.”

“With an interest rate cut from the Fed, mortgage rates went up. This is with the backdrop of the weakest performance of the dollar in decades. The fed is losing control over the yield curve, and we are heading for stagflation.”