Analysis

North American auto assemblies slipped in September

October 30, 2025

North American auto assemblies declined in September, down 5.1% vs. August. And, according to GlobalData, assemblies were also down 1% year on year.

After a hard drop in December — the worst since July 2021 — assembly numbers rallied in Q1. But numbers were inconsistent throughout Q2 before a seasonal summer slump in July. Now, while September totals are down month-on-month (m/m) and year on year (y/y), they are largely above the 2025 year-to-date monthly average of 1.29 million units.

Background

Recall that the Trump administration first imposed a 25% tariff on all imported light vehicles in April. By May, the same 25% duty applied to auto parts.

Spring buying surged as a result. It front-loaded consumer demand. That momentum has now tapered, though demand has been largely on par with 2024. But tariffs are straining North American auto production — impacting costs and disrupting cross-border supply chains.

North American vehicle production, including personal and commercial vehicles, totaled 1.305 million units in September, down more than 5% from August’s 1.375 million units and down 1% from the 1.319 million units produced a year earlier.

Figure 1 below provides a five-year snapshot of North American light-vehicle production since 2020 on a rolling 12-month basis with a y/y growth rate. Also included is a five-year snapshot of average monthly production, which includes seasonality since 2016.

A short-term snapshot of assembly by nation and vehicle type is shown in the table below. It breaks down total North American personal and commercial vehicle production into US, Canadian, and Mexican components. It also includes the three- and 12-month growth rates for each and their momentum change.

For the three months and 12 months through September, the growth rate for total personal production in the USMCA region saw some improvement and stayed ahead in the near term. Commercial production has seen some growth, though only marginally, as output lags year-ago levels.

Personal vehicle production

The longer-term picture of personal vehicle production across North America is shown below. The charts in Figure 2 show the total personal vehicle production for North America and the total for the US, Canada, and Mexico.

In terms of personal vehicle production, this segment saw a 5.7% m/m drop in September. Assemblies last month totaled 956,274 units, down from 1.014 million units in August. And that’s still about 1% below a year earlier.

The US saw a 4.4% m/m production drop, with 29,284 fewer units in September. Mexico fell, producing 28,826 (-11.5%) fewer units, while Canada was largely flat, producing 68 (+01%) more units.

Production share across North America was little changed. The US’ personal vehicle production share of the North American market was 65.7%, followed by Mexico and Canada at 24.9% and 9.3%, respectively.

Commercial vehicle production

Total commercial vehicle production in North America and the total for each country within the region are shown in Figure 3 on a rolling three-month basis. Commercial vehicle production in the US and Mexico, as well as their y/y growth rates and the production share for each nation in North America, are also shown.

North American commercial vehicle production was also down in September. The region saw a 3.2% m/m decline, with a total of 348,951 units, down from 360,507 in August. September’s output was also still 3.4% below last year.

The US saw a 4.7% m/m dip, with 12,210 fewer commercial vehicles assembled in September. Canada and Mexico both saw auto assemblies improve m/m by 2.1% (+253 units), and 0.05% (+401 units).

The market share across the region was also largely unchanged in September. The US total share was 72%, followed by Mexico with 25.1% and Canada with 2.9%.

Mexico exports roughly 85% of its light-vehicle production, with the US and Canada as the highest-volume destinations.

Editor’s note

This report is based on data from GlobalData for automotive assemblies in the US, Canada, and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for personal use) and “Commercial” (light vehicles with less than 6.0 metric tons gross vehicle weight rating; heavy trucks and buses are not included).

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is deputy editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. He can be contacted at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.