Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we read through each and every response we collected to summarize these key takeaways:

• The majority of buyers expect prices to continue rising from here. But many believe the market could stabilize or turn in late Q1 or early Q2.
• Most report stable demand. But some say demand is better today compared to recent months or this time last year.
• Inventory movement is mixed, with split responses on whether it is moving faster, slower, or the same as year‑ago levels.
• The attractiveness of imported material remains low overall but is improving in some buyers’ eyes. Most say it is still not worth the risk due to extended lead times and tariff costs.

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How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Upwards momentum. Scrap will go up again due to weather. Mills will glom on.”

“Despite the fact that demand is off with my customers or there’s some hesitation to buy at these elevated prices, I expect the tariffs and somewhat restricted domestic supply to drive prices up a little more for the next three months.”

“We see prices rising mildly through February.”

“Slight gradual and incremental increases due to pent up demand releasing and mill reactions to demand.”

“Up but just a bit. We are reaching a point of resistance.”

“I think we’re at or at least close to the top. I keep hearing imports are going to come in starting late Q1. I think we’ll see a nasty reversal at some point.”

“Up slow and steady until April and then back down.”

“Slightly up and then level off. Demand is still not robust.”

“Pricing will peak in February, and in three months pricing will be stable at $945. Demand is still weak.”

“Flat. Demand is low.”

“I feel if something doesn’t change with end-use demand, prices will begin moving lower soon.”

“Lower. Supply and demand are well in balance and mill margins don’t reflect it.”

Is demand improving, declining, or stable?

“Demand actually seems okay. Not great, obviously, but a bit stronger than last year.”

“Stable with improvement. We are still skipping across the bottom.”

“Stable demand after a very active December.”

“Stable. Too much uncertainty for traction.”

“Stable but at lower volumes.”

“Improving, slightly. Historic Q1 performance.”

“Plate demand is steadily improving.”

“I’m seeing diminished demand over the last 1-2 months at least. That’s partially due to too many customers buying ahead of these higher prices. And now customers are hesitant to buy due to elevated prices.”

“Uncertainty keeps limiting demand.”

“Declining mostly due to seasonality.”

“Demand is weak, and inventories are still at good levels.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Plate inventory is moving better than reported.”

“Faster as future demand is being purchased now due to pricing increases.”

“Faster, but we started last year slower than normal.”

“Faster at the start of the month, slowed down last week.”

“Inventory is moving maybe the same, which isn’t saying much.”

“About the same.”

“A tad slower. Winter effects.”

“Slower due to less demand.”

“Slower YTD.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Most buyers responding to this question (55%) feel their businesses are not benefiting from tariffs. Almost 30% are unsure how the policies will impact them, and only 15% think the tariffs are helping. Comments included:

“Not sure, I’d prefer tariff levels to remain stable.”

“Unsure. Margins are up due to the increasing prices, but I think the policies have diminished demand.”

“No, there is still so much dang noise and negativity out there.”

“No, just causing price increases.”

“Yes, watch the movie Idiocracy – the tariffs are like when they started putting water on the crops instead of Brawndo.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Almost half of respondents (48%) reported they are not seeing any signs of reshoring. The remainder was split: 26% said they have seen some evidence and 26% said it is too early to tell. Comments included:

“This will take time. But, no, we haven’t actually seen anything happening.”

“No, and I think most fear that the next administration will allow imports to get back into the US with reduced, if not removed, tariffs.”

“Yes, in electronics.”

“Yes, A252 grade steel pipe due to tariffs. Domestic demand has increased at these mills.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Not currently due to landed cost with quotas and tariffs make pricing higher than domestic.”

“Plate imports are currently not attractive on the offers we’ve received.”

“No, imports are not attractive and haven’t been for a while.”

“No, lead times are too long – and tariff costs.”

“No, lead times. But pricing is becoming more appetizing.”

“Not yet, but we are getting close.”

“Imports are similar to domestic.”

“Imports are priced better.”

“Yes, it’s easy to buy below current domestic numbers.”

“Import pricing is definitely there. Lead times are little scary, but it is worth the gamble.”

“I’m hearing that foreign steel is cheaper and will get some consideration despite their longer lead times.”

“Only on very light gauges.”

“Not attractive due to customers requiring domestic.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Reported lead times versus actual ship dates. I have heard of HRC shipping very quickly even as mills prop up the price.”

“Inventory is tight, especially for specialty products.”

“Tightness in high carbon and alloy market due to closing of Cliffs Riverdale.”

“Coast to coast weather implications on distribution and scrap availability.”

“Seeing a lot of layoffs, either pending or starting to happen, as companies continue to cut costs. Margins are squeezed since demand remains muted, while all industries look poised for more consolidation.”

“What happens if/when all the mills are open and operating closer to full capacity.”

“Nice to see AHMSA back in the headlines. Likewise with all the SSC M&A action. I guess one thing that has gone quiet now is SDI’s push to grow via acquisitions.”

“South American quotas and steel market from Brazil.”

“How little to no margin is a rot on an economy and monetary system. If you buy products from countries that have no margin on their goods, you are bringing that rot into your own economy and monetary system.”

“Things are not bad. Let’s all be positive.”