Steel market chatter this week

Before diving in, we read through each of the responses collected and found these key takeaways:

• The majority of buyers foresee prices inching higher into the summer months. Many think the market could subsequently plateau and prices tick downward.
• Demand is said to be stable overall, with some reporting improvements.
• Most respondents say their inventories are moving similar to or faster than year-ago levels.
• Some report imports are becoming more appealing because of high prices for domestic material, a notable shift following months of historically low import volumes.
• Most contend that President Trump’s tariff policies are not helping their businesses. And more than half of respondents say they have seen no evidence of manufacturing reshoring due to tariffs.

Want to share your thoughts? Contact smu@crugroup.com to be included in our market questionnaires.

How do you expect prices to trend over the next three months?

“Up, seasonal demand and limited supply situation.”

“We are still experiencing upward momentum driven by tight supply.”

“Pricing will remain high due to the Iranian war and energy price escalation.”

“Upward as long as the war with Iran persists.”

“There will continue to be small increases at least through April.”

“Up, energy prices are up and mills are overbooked.”

“I think we’ll keep rising for the next month, plateau around $1,100/ton, then fall back post-spring outage season. Maybe we’re in the low $900s by mid-summer?”

“I expect prices to trend up modestly the next couple months and then begin declining, unless something significant spurs demand to increase beyond where we are currently at.”

“Not sure… Likely up for the next 30 days and then leveling off.”

“Slighter higher and then level.”

“Flat or slightly down. High energy prices will suppress demand.”

Is demand improving, declining or stable?

“Demand seems stable. But the noise in the marketplace (macro-wise) certainly doesn’t help anyone.”

“Demand has been stable for the past two months.”

“Stable, seasonal increases over last year.”

“Relatively stable.”

“Stable at this point, but we should see some improvement due to seasonality of our products.”

“Plate demand is stable to improving.”

“Improving, still seeing reshoring efforts.”

“Improving, though not sure why.”

“Demand is better.”

“Declining.”

Is inventory moving faster or slower than this time last year?

“Inventory is moving about the same, which isn’t saying much considering our inventory levels are so much lower.”

“Plate inventory is moving out the door just fine.”

“It’s about the same as the first quarter of 2025 for our flat-rolled products.”

“About the same.”

“Much faster.”

“Faster. If you have material, people need it. There is not enough in the market.”

“Faster, business up and inventories low at customers.”

“Slower than last year.”

Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business?

Two thirds (67%) of the buyers responding to this question said their businesses were not benefiting from tariffs, one of the highest ‘No’ rates for this question over the past year. Of the remainder, 24% were unsure whether tariffs were helping or hurting their businesses, and just 10% said that the tariffs were helping. Comments included:

“No, they continue to create uncertainty in the market and are allowing domestic mills to drive prices up with the reduced competition.”

“No, they’re driving up domestic prices, driving up the cost of imports, and making things just terrible.”

“No. I would say ‘yes’ if I was a pure SSC (i.e., higher pricing, higher margins). But overall they’ve been bad for business.”

“No, they are driving the cost of steel up domestically.”

“Yes, higher spread when prices go up.”

“Not sure, they are hurting on the front end with pricing. Too early to say overall.”

Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?

Half of respondents (52%) reported they were not seeing any signs of reshoring. A third said it was too early to tell, and 14% responded they had seen some evidence. Comments included:

“Too early to say. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act has increased investment.”

“No, probably too early to say. But I’ll stick with ‘no’ until proven otherwise.”

“No, seems like it’s just talk.”

“Yes, specific sizes.”

Are imports more attractive than domestic material?

“Import pricing is definitely there, and the longer lead times aren’t quite as scary. All of the big boys I talk to have imports arriving and/or on the way.”

“Only on light-gauge painted .012” or lighter.”

“Pricing is starting to look more attractive.”

“Starting to be more attractive.”

“Not attractive for our flat-rolled products due to customer domestic requirements, but long products are attractive due to domestic mill lead times.”

“Yes and no, it depends on the product.”

“Depends on the product and country you’re buying from.”

“Not yet, but getting pretty darn close.”

“No, due to logistics cost increases and quotas.”

“Imports are reluctant to quote due to war with Iran.”

“No, we buy American.”

“Plate imports are not attractive.”

What’s something that’s going on in the market that nobody is talking about?

“Steel beam prices are very high.”

“Consolidation has, rightfully so, taken some headlines – both at the mill and SSC level. I wonder about Midwest folks, though, and a somewhat gloomy outlook for automotive.”

“The Mexican and South American steel markets.”

“Freight pricing is going higher than fuel increase justifies. 7-8% increase due to fuel. But carriers are increasing prices by 25%+.”