This report is based on data from LMC Automotive for automotive assemblies in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The breakdown of assemblies is “Personal” (cars for personal use) and “Commercial” (light vehicles less than 6.0 tonnes gross vehicle weight rating, heavy trucks and buses are not included). In this report we will briefly describe light […]
Heavy equipment manufacturer John Deere sees early signs of improvement in the U.S. agriculture sector, following the passage of USMCA and the Phase 1 trade agreement with China. “U.S. farm cash receipts are expected to increase in 2020, aided in part by the recently announced third tranche of market facilitation payments, which totaled $3.6 billion, […]
Home prices, as reported by S&P Dow Jones, rose at a modest rate in December 2019. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. Census divisions, reported a 3.8 percent annual gain in December, up from 3.5 percent in November. S&P Dow Jones noted that following a period of […]
We have adjusted our plate price momentum indicator from neutral to lower. Prices have been dropping over the past couple of weeks, and steel buyers are very negative on the markets right now (see some of the comments in an article above). I have to tell you I am really struggling with all of the […]
Based on the results from the flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis Steel Market Update conducted this past week, along with new steel price discussions SMU had with steel buyers late last week, we have decided to move our flat rolled (hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume) price Momentum Indicators to Lower […]
Steel buyers sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has remained relatively steady at a fairly optimistic level since the beginning of the year. But both Current and Future Sentiment have registered a very slight decline in the past few weeks. SMU’s Current Sentiment Index registered +56 this week, down from +63 at this time […]
Existing-home sales started the year strong at a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.46 million in January. Sales slipped 1.3 percent from December, but were up 9.6 percent from a year ago. “The trend line for housing starts is increasing and showing steady improvement, which should ultimately lead to more home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, chief […]
Architecture firms reported an increase in business in January. The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index rose to 52.2 last month, compared to a revised score of 52.1 in December. New project inquiries and new design contracts for nonresidential construction posted scores of 57.9 and 56.0, respectively. “Despite the continued presence of volatility in […]
Earlier today I moved our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral. I explained my reasoning in an article in tonight’s issue. What happens should one of the steel mills announce a price increase within the next couple of weeks? With scrap poised to move higher, and lead times being decent at most of the […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel have shortened slightly this month, though not yet enough to signal a definite trend. The current numbers suggest the mills are still maintaining relatively healthy order levels, but a change may be in the works. Lead times for steel delivery are an indicator of demand […]
Price negotiations with the mills have continued to loosen up as it’s rapidly becoming a buyer’s market. The vast majority of service center and manufacturing executives responding to Steel Market Update’s questionnaire this week said the mills are open to price negotiations on nearly all products to win the orders. In the hot rolled segment, […]
Writen by: John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update On Tuesday I received a question about the SMU Price Momentum Indicator, which is currently pointing toward Neutral pricing over the next 30 days. Yesterday (Wednesday) I received the following note from one of our readers after reading Tuesday evening’s issue of Steel Market Update: […]
Housing starts slowed in January but remained at a solid pace, while building permits surged to a 13-year high. January starts were down 3.6 percent from December to an adjusted annual rate of 1,567,000, but were 21.4 percent higher than a year ago. Construction starts for single-family homes fell 5.9 percent compared to December. Multi-family […]
It is rare that market direction is clear and uncontested. There have been a few times during my 42-year steel career when it was obvious prices were going to be higher tomorrow than they are today. It was during one of those times in history that I began writing a note to my steel buying […]
Flat Rolled = 52.6 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 48.4 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers scaled back their flat rolled steel inventories at the end of January to 52.6 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, down from 62.9 in December, according to the SMU Service Center Inventories Report. This […]
Economists are fond of saying, “when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold.” Where goes the world’s largest economy, smaller economies follow. Likewise, China, the world’s second largest economy, has come down with a particularly nasty bug that is threatening the health of global commerce. By now most are familiar […]
December heating and cooling equipment shipments came in at 1.61 million units, up 0.6 percent from the same month one year ago, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). This is the second consecutive month that total shipments have increased on a year-over-year basis. Residential and commercial storage water heater […]
We will begin our mid-February flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis at 8 a.m. on Monday. Currently we are inviting approximately 560 individuals to participate in the market questionnaire, which takes about 4-8 minutes to complete. If you receive an invitation, please take a few minutes to provide your insights as they are […]
Service centers’ support of higher steel prices appears to have turned the corner and begun to recede, which helps to explain the recent downturn in the price of hot rolled coil. Steel Market Update data places the current price for hot rolled at $580 per ton, down $30 from the $610 peak in early January. […]
I am asking manufacturing companies if their company buys parts from China, and if so, what has the coronavirus done to shipments of their products. An ag-related company told me the workers are just returning to the plant in China after the extended holidays. I was told they were seeing at least a two-week delay […]
Automakers are being challenged to put their best vehicles forward in the fight against climate change. Europe’s new emissions regulations for passenger and light commercial vehicles went into effect as of Jan. 1 this year. Going forward, auto manufacturers selling cars in the EU will work toward a 15 percent reduction of CO2 emissions by […]
The Super Bowl is done, the Grammys are behind us, the Oscars selected a foreign film (Parasite from South Korea) for the first time as Best Movie. The Iowa caucus presented more questions than answers. Today is the New Hampshire primary and the first votes finally are being cast to see who the Democrats will […]
Steel buyers remain optimistic about their prospects for success, but perhaps slightly less so than in mid-January. Steel prices have seen modest declines since then, along with headlines on presidential impeachment and a deadly virus in China adding to worries about the economy. Steel Market Update’s Current Sentiment Index registered +61, down from +63 two […]
The American Trucking Association appealed for the implementation of a fuel tax to support highway and border infrastructure during recent testimony in Washington by President and CEO Chris Spear. “The fuel tax is the most immediate, cost-efficient and conservative mechanism currently available for funding surface transportation projects and programs. Collection costs are less than 1 […]
The Dodge Momentum Index fell 2.7 percent in January to 152.5 following four months of gains. The index is a measure of the first report of nonresidential projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending by a full year. Planning for commercial projects increased 2.7 percent, but a 11.0 percent decline in […]
I spent the second half of last week in Tampa where I was the master of ceremonies for the 31st Tampa Steel Conference hosted by the Port of Tampa. John Anton, IHS Markit Director of Steel Analytics / Pricing and Purchasing Service, provided the key economic and steel forecast for the group. He told the […]
Earlier today, Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicators on hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume to Neutral. What this means is we see market prices in transition, or in a holding pattern, and we no longer expect prices to rise over the next 30 days. Prior to today we had momentum on […]
Mill lead times for spot orders of flat rolled steel extended by more than a week during last year’s fourth quarter, but so far this year have been fairly flat. The average lead time for orders of hot roll is now a bit less than five weeks, cold roll around six and a half weeks […]
Price negotiations between steelmakers and steel users have loosened considerably on most steel products. Buyers report some new wiggle room in talks over spot prices. In the hot rolled segment, nearly three out of four of the steel buyers responding to SMU’s questionnaire this week (74 percent) said the mills are now more willing to […]
John Packard is traveling… Steel Market Update changed its Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral today. Not that steel prices couldn’t start inching upward once again in the coming weeks. It’s just that the direction is unclear and we need to wait and watch for the next trend to reveal itself. Lead times aren’t […]