Our futures contributor, Tim Stevenson of Metal Edge Partners, raises a good question in his column this week. With the mills moving steel prices higher, have buyers restocked enough to stay out of the market? “If so, service centers and end users can step away from spot buys and wait for prices to fall again. […]
The Dodge Momentum Index increased for a second consecutive month, climbing 1.8 percent in August to 126.5. The commercial component of the index increased 3.3 percent while the institutional component dipped 1.2 percent lower. The index is a monthly measure of the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to […]
What a difference a single month can make. Most respondents to SMU’s questionnaire this week see the mills collecting their last price increase and expect them to hike prices again sometime this month. As one executive commented: “There’s been a complete flip in the market from just 30 days ago. We went from discussions about […]
Monthly auto sales are now just estimates due to the predilection of manufacturers to report on a quarterly basis, but analysts at industry forecaster ALG estimate U.S. sales were down about 11 percent year-over-year in August, compared to a 15 percent annual decline in July. Sales increased 6 percent on a month-over-month basis. Toyota sales […]
Industry sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has improved to relatively healthy levels even higher than this time last year prior to the pandemic. Both the Current and Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes have jumped by 20 points or more in the past month, suggesting buyers are feeling better about the market’s recovery. SMU […]
Lead times for spot orders of flat rolled and plate steels have extended by about a week over the past month as demand continues to recover and buying picks up ahead of rising prices. Lead times for hot rolled now average nearly five weeks and coated products more than seven weeks. Lead times are an […]
Flat rolled steel is no longer a buyer’s market as the mills appear less willing to negotiate while they try to collect the price increases they announced late last month. Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire this week shows the majority of buyers reporting mills holding the line in price talks on hot rolled, cold rolled […]
Construction spending slid in July for both public and private nonresidential construction, says the Associated General Contractors of America in their latest analysis of government data. The decline contrasted a surge in construction spending for new homes in July. “The dichotomy between slumping nonresidential projects—both public and private—and robust homebuilding seems sure to widen as […]
The benchmark hot rolled steel price has jumped back over the psychological line of $500 per ton, to $515 by SMU’s current estimate, which is a positive sign for steel demand, but it begs the question: How high will it go and for how long? SMU asked steel buyers how much of the $40-60 per […]
How much has the market recovered from the depths of the pandemic? If steel prices are an indicator, we’ve made some progress. But is the bump we’ve seen in the past several weeks just a temporary blip or a sign that the upturn in steel demand is real and sustainable? Service center and OEM executives […]
Home prices rose 4.3 percent in the June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, matching the annual gain in May. The 20-city composite posted a 3.5 percent gain, slipping slightly from 3.6 percent in the previous month. Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa led the increases with year-over-year gains of 9.0 percent, 6.5 percent […]
The COVID-19 pandemic has clearly taken a toll on the attitudes of many industry executives. The pessimism is evident in some of the responses to polling conducted during the SMU Virtual Steel Summit this week. We asked the hundreds of executives on the site: Where do you believe steel demand will be at this time next year compared […]
Claiming national security concerns over a slump in the U.S. steel market, President Trump issued a proclamation late Friday that appears to amend the quota limits on Brazil, further restricting steel imports from South American nation. While it’s unclear at this point which products will be affected and to what degree, one source tells SMU […]
Sales of new single-family homes soared 13.9 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 901,000 and the highest level in almost 14 years, according to estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Compared to a year ago, sales surged 36.3 percent. The phenomenal increase stunned […]
Industry sentiment has improved in the past two weeks, as measured by Steel Market Update. SMU’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Indexes took a dip in July but rebounded in the latest check of the market for reasons that are not entirely clear. Respondents bemoan the persistent uncertainty, but business is good in certain sectors. SMU asks […]
Welcome from SMU Virtual Steel Summit Conference control central in Hobe Sound, Fla. It’s sunny, temperatures are in the mid-90’s and my home looks nothing like a typical Florida residence as a team of production and audio/visual experts assist in the creation this year’s virtual event. Putting on a conference as large as ours has […]
The latest CRU Global Economic Outlook indicates that Mexican auto production will not reach 2019 levels until 2023, with expectations that 2020 volumes will be down about 23 percent in 2020 and recover 19 percent in 2021. There is some near-term upside to the Mexican market as production returns to normality after the Covid-19-related shutdowns, […]
Construction employment declined in 26 states and the District of Columbia from June to July, says the Associated General Contractors of America in a new analysis of government data. “Renewed outbreaks of coronavirus in numerous states likely caused many project owners and investors to pull back on planned construction,” said AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson. […]
Existing-home sales made a record monthly jump of 24.7 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.86 million. Sales have soared the past two months. “The housing market is well past the recovery phase and is now booming with higher home sales compared to the pre-pandemic days,” said Lawrence Yun, National Association of […]
Last week Steel Market Update adjusted all of the flat rolled price momentum indicators from Neutral to Higher. We made the decision to move hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume to higher due to prices already beginning to track up from the low levels achieved over the past couple of weeks. We also made […]
For more than 28 percent of steel buyers, business is back to pre-COVID levels already, while at the other end of the spectrum 9 percent have seen little or no recovery. For the vast majority in between, the recovery process is a slow and ongoing one. In the latest market canvass this week, SMU asked: […]
The July Architecture Billings Index held steady at 40.0, the same as June, indicating that business activity continues to be soft at firms, reports the American Institute of Architects. The project Inquiries index slipped from 49.3 in June to 49.1 in July, while the index for design contracts fell sharply from 44.0 to 41.7. Any […]
The housing industry continued to be a boost to the economy in July. Housing starts jumped 22.6 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,496,000 from the revised June rate of 1,220,000. Compared to a year ago, housing starts were up 23.4 percent. “Demand is being supported by low interest rates and […]
Flat Rolled = 55.5 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 54.7 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled Service centers pared down flat-rolled steel supply in July to 55.5 shipping days of supply, according to preliminary data, down from 62.5 in June’s adjusted data. Inventories represented 2.52 months of supply in July, down from 2.84 in […]
Seventy percent of the steel buyers polled by SMU last week said they believe prices are near the bottom of the current market. SMU pegs the current benchmark price for hot rolled at around $440 per ton, slightly lower than the consensus view of $460 per ton because SMU learned of some low-$400’s deals late […]
June heating and cooling equipment shipments totaled 2.28 million units, up 6.8 percent from the same month one year ago, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). This is the highest monthly shipment level in SMU’s 12+ year limited history, surpassing the previous monthly high in June 2018 at 2.27 […]
As I look at today’s hot rolled average of $440 per ton (-$10 from last week) I feel it’s my duty to provide some context to our number. SMU captured transactions placed late last week at, or slightly below, $400 per ton for spot hot rolled. Since Monday of this week we were capturing higher […]
Our friends at ITR Economics warn us to be wary of economic misreporting, especially when the media is so full of dramatic headlines about the state of the pandemic. It’s easy for reporters to misinterpret the data, which is confusing to nearly everyone. ITR continues to predict U.S. GDP will move into a recovery mode […]
The service center and manufacturer executives who read Steel Market Update have been telling us for some time that they believe steel prices are near the bottom and poised to turn around soon. Our latest check of the market, with flat rolled steel prices up anywhere from $15 to $25 per ton, suggests the market […]
Four days to go… This will be our 10th SMU Steel Summit Conference. Over those 10 years the SMU team (and now CRU team) has built the most successful steel conference outside of mainland China. This year’s conference will be either the second or third most attended event we have had since the beginning. I don’t think we […]