The Architecture Billings Index made a small gain in November with a score of 50.6, basically unchanged from October’s reading of 50.8. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings for design services. The new projects inquiry index rose to 59.5 from 55.4 in November indicating future growth in construction activity. “Without many details […]
This is our final issue before the Christmas and Chanukah (Hanukkah) Holidays which begin this weekend. We will not publish our regular (Executive) newsletter until next Tuesday, December 27th. We will then publish on Thursday before taking time off to celebrate the New Year. We will publish a Premium supplemental issue in the morning (Friday) […]
Late last week the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) released service center shipment and inventories data for the United States and Canada. We published both a general recap and a more complex analysis of the data in Thursday and Sunday issues of SMU. Steel Market Update has a proprietary model that we apply against the […]
A note about the MSCI data and carbon flat rolled inventories. The MSCI reported hot rolled supplies on the floor of the U.S. steel mills as being 2.21 months supply. Cold rolled and coated supplies were under 2.0 months based on MSCI statistics. Cold rolled was reported to be 1.90 months supply and coated at […]
Housing starts retreated in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,090,000. The rate is 18.7 percent below the revised October estimate of 1.34 million and 6.9 percent below the November 2015 rate. Sequentially, single family starts fell 4.1 percent and multifamily starts plunged 43.9 percent. On a year over year basis single family […]
If there are going to be price increase announcements prior to the New Year they will most likely be made this week as opposed to next when most of the steel community is taking time off for the Holidays. If they are not made this week then the expectation has to be the first week […]
General Motors announced it will invest $552 million in key U.S. manufacturing facilities in New York and Ohio. The New York manufacturing facilities Tonawanda Engine, Lockport and Rochester will receive a total of $333.66 million. The Parma Metal Center in Ohio is slated for a $218 million investment. “GM remains committed to investing in its […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the fifth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
There are a number of players in the market that are overly concerned (in my opinion) about the restart of the USS Granite City hot strip mill (they are not yet restarting the two idled blast furnaces so they are not adding any new raw steel production into the market) and Mingo Junction (reported to […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through October 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for October 2016 decreased 1.9 percent […]
We are hearing from a number of service centers that there have been a couple of mills out there who are not interested in pushing prices again this year. The thought process is split within the steel community to see if the next increase (which the vast majority of the industry believes is coming) will […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted one of our flat rolled steel market trends analysis. We invited just under 600 people to participate in our early December survey and we had 100+ responses. Based on these responses we derive our lead times, negotiations, Sentiment and many other trends that impact the flat rolled steel industry. […]
SMU Sentiment Index Sees Renewed Optimism The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen a renewed spurt of optimism based on our latest data. Sentiment, which had been trending lower since the beginning of July based on our three month moving average (3MMA) reversed course and moved higher this week. Our 3MMA for Current Sentiment […]
Over the past four days Steel Market Update has been conducting one of our market trends surveys. The respondents to our queries have provided data indicating slightly longer lead times on hot rolled, cold rolled and Galvalume while galvanized lead times remained steady at mid-November levels. The lead times reported in this article are the […]
According to those participating in this week’s flat rolled steel market trends survey the domestic steel mills are taking a firm stance to price negotiations. Since the first price increase announcements were made in late October the percentage of steel buyers reporting the mills as willing to negotiate prices has dropped from a high of […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the fourth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
The Dodge Momentum Index gained 0.3 percent in November after breaking a five month streak of increases in October. The Dodge Momentum Index, published by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential […]
Scrap prices still appear to be up anywhere from $40 per ton (very early deals) to as much as $50 per ton with most of the deals done late this week in the +$50 range. Dealers have sold all of the scrap they want to dispose of during the month of December. One of our […]
I am sitting in Colorado Springs, Colorado after having spent the last few days attending the HARDI annual conference. I have been a member of HARDI and have participated in their steel committee for many years. After I stopped selling steel and began Steel Market Update as my main focus I was invited to remain […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. October data for CPIP was released on Thursday December 1st. The tables in this report don’t look so good but in fact the single month of October looked a lot better […]
Automotive manufacturers reported strong sales for November with light-vehicle volumes up 3.5 percent year over year. Wards Auto data indicated the seasonally adjusted annual rate reached 17.75 million, in line with their forecast of 17.68 million. Analysts are unsure if 2016 sales will top last year’s record of 17.47 million but it is likely to […]
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is calling for the agency to make a final decision on fuel economy standards for the auto industry before the Trump administration takes office. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, issued jointly by the EPA and the U.S. Department of Transportation, are up for […]
Lack of infrastructure projects has led to a decline or stagnation of construction employment in one third of U.S. metro areas in October said the Associated General Contractors of America. The press release from AGC follows: Construction employment declined or was stagnant in one-third of metro areas between October 2015 and October 2016 amid diminishing […]
During the process of completing our questionnaire all of those invited first get to respond to a number of questions aimed at all of our respondents. Then we segregate the respondents into their appropriate groups where they respond to questions specifically designed for each group. The two largest groups are manufacturing companies and steel service […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. At the end of […]
In September Steel Market Update forecast October shipments of flat rolled steel out of the service centers would total 2,049,000 tons. According to the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) the actual total came in at 2,099,000 tons. SMU forecast flat rolled inventories to total 4,800,000 tons at the end of October. The actual number was […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the third consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
NLMK USA has gotten the go-ahead on a new walking beam furnace for the Pennsylvania plant. Some pre-construction has already begun. James Baker, Jr. told us in an email, “We will be installing a walking beam furnace in Farrell. We have already started on initial site prep with target completion date of September 2018. There […]
As of late this afternoon www.Kitco.com was reporting zinc spot pricing around $1.22 per pound. Zinc recently reported prices not seen in the past 9 years and those of you buying galvanized and Galvalume steels need to be aware of how zinc is trading. The U.S. steel mills published new extras just as zinc pierced […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a survey of the flat rolled steel markets. We invite close to 600 people representing approximately 550 companies spread out around the United States and Canada. We concentrate on two main steel buying groups: manufacturing companies and service centers/wholesalers. Our most recent market trends analysis was completed […]