Category: Analysis

Washington loomed large in our surveys this week. Two things actually: the upcoming presidential election and the trade case against imported coated products from 10 nations.

SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

We are pleased to share this CRU analysis of the North American zinc market with SMU subscribers.

Drilling activity eased in the US last week, while Canadian counts increased, according to the latest data release from Baker Hughes.

Both the LME three-month price and the SHFE rallied following the stimulus package announcement by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). China's central bank announced its largest stimulus since the pandemic to combat deflation and to support economic growth. The comprehensive package includes increased funding and interest rate cuts. It aims to restore confidence in the economy amid disappointing data.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and continue to indicate optimism amongst steel buyers.

Thanks to everyone who attended our Steel Hedging 101 workshop in Chicago on Wednesday. I learned a lot from StoneX Group’s Spencer Johnson, who instructs the course, and from your good questions. One thing that Spencer said sticks with me as I write this column. Namely, that momentum drives steel prices more than other commodity markets. If you watch steel futures, you’ll see up days and down days. But it’s rare to see the momentum shifting back and forth within any given day.

Over three quarters of the steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported that mills are negotiable on new order prices

We saw a slight upward movement in some products compared to early September, but nothing substantial enough to signal a shift in the market.

Galvanized steel buyers on Tuesday discussed the eerie stability in sheet prices of late. Expectations are for the murky market to persist in the short term, while glimmers of hope continue for prices pushing higher.

Steel mill output around the world totaled 144.8 million metric tons (mt) in August, the lowest monthly rate of 2024.

In this Premium analysis we cover oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels in North America. Energy prices and rig counts are advance indicators of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe, and other steel products.

SMU's prices ranges for flat-rolled steel were mostly sideways on Tuesday even as futures market shot higher. I got some questions as to why hot-rolled (HR) coil futures shot higher. As best as I can tell, it might have been in response to news that China plans to roll out stimulus measures. We have details on those measures here thanks to our colleagues at CRU. The chart below gives you some idea of just how sharply upward the move in HR futures was earlier on Tuesday:

SMU’s steel price indices were mixed this week as the market seeks direction. All of our indices have fluctuated within relatively narrow ranges across September.

Last week, iron ore prices dropped below $90 per dry metric ton (dmt) for the second time in the past two years. However, prices rebounded strongly today and ended the week at $93.5/dmt, driven by the stimulus announcement in China.

The amount of raw steel US steel mills produced last week slipped to the lowest rate recorded since early July, according to the latest release from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Nucor’s weekly consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil increased $10 per short ton (st) from last week to $730/st as of Monday, Sept. 23.

It’s officially fall. And here’s a funny thing about steel prices in the fall over the last few years – they tend to move in the opposite direction of the leaves. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $676 per short ton (st) in September 2023. That figure increased to $1,035/st in December 2023, a gain of 53% percent. (You can follow along with our pricing tool.)

The premium galvanized coil prices carry over hot-rolled (HR) coil continues to shrink, according to SMU price indices.

USTR’s final determination of Chinese tariffs The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced its final decision concerning tariffs it will introduce against Chinese imports as part of its Section 301 investigation. The proposed modifications first announced in May were largely adopted, with several updates strengthening actions to protect American businesses. “Today’s finalized […]

The latest Federal Reserve data paints a healthy and stable manufacturing sector. Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members.

SMU is pleased to share the latest news from the global pig iron markets from our sister publication, Recycled Metals Update.

Continued highly competitive steel exports from China, amid weakening global demand, have triggered a wave of trade protectionism across major markets.

Whether it’s the twists and turns of the presidential election, the U.S. Steel deal, or just what’s happening with the movement of steel pricing, there has been no shortage of stories for us to cover.

The August Architecture Billings Index (ABI) continued to indicate weak business conditions amongst architecture firms through August, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Cleveland-Cliffs is seeking $750 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled coil. That’s $20/st above where the steelmaker had been. It’s also $30/st above Nucor, which is at $720/st this week. We've seen prices increase incrementally this week. SMU's HR price, for example, stands at $690/st on average, up $5/st from last week. The questions now are whether a number well above $700/st will stick, whether other mills will follow Cliffs, and whether there is enough demand to support higher prices.

SMU’s steel price indices were steady to higher this week. Each of our sheet indices crept upwards from last week, while our plate index was unchanged.

Steel Market Update’s Steel Demand Index ticked back seven points last week, falling further into contraction territory.

Flat rolled = 66.3 shipping days of supply Plate = 57.0 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers grew further in August. The dynamic resulted from some Q3 restocking efforts at a perceived market bottom, met with shorter lead times and weaker demand. At the end of August, service […]