SMU Data and Models

Apparent steel supply slips to 7-month low in September

Written by Brett Linton

November 11, 2024

The total amount of finished steel to enter the US market in September fell to its lowest level in seven months, according to our analysis of recent Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply,’ we calculate this volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments with finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports.

Total apparent supply for September was 8.03 million short tons (st), down 3% from the previous month and the lowest monthly rate seen since February (8.02 million st). September’s supply was also 4% below the monthly average of 2024 (8.39 million st). Recall that earlier this year supply had peaked at a 21-month high of 8.90 million st in May. This time last year apparent supply was 7.99 million st, marking a 10-month low at the time).

To better recognize long-term trends, supply can be assessed using a three-month moving average (3MMA). This method smooths out monthly fluctuations and highlights broader patterns. Supply on a 3MMA basis has trended downward over the last three years, following the late 2021 peak of 9.87 million st. Back in May we saw the 3MMA supply rise to an 11-month high of 8.70 million st. The September 3MMA is down to 8.24 million st, one of the lowest rates seen since early 2021. One year prior it was 8.37 million st, while two years ago it was significantly higher at 8.83 million st.

Looking at the four most recent months of data (June through September), the highest apparent supply rate occurred in July. Across this period, we have seen a rise then fall in all three supply subcomponents. The decline from August to September was primarily due to a 209,000-st (3%) decrease in domestic shipments and a 142,000-st (8%) decline in finished imports, slightly offset by a 82,000 st (10%) drop in exports.

Figure 4 shows year-to-date (YTD) monthly averages for each statistic over the last four years. The average monthly supply level for the first nine months of 2024 is now 8.39 million st, 2% less than the same period last year. If we go back to 2022, we see that year holds the highest YTD monthly average in our recent history at 9.02 million st. Over the past few years, finished imports have grown steadily, while domestic shipments and total exports have eased from their 2022 highs.

To see an interactive graphic of our apparent steel supply history, click here. If you need any assistance logging into or navigating the website, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.

Brett Linton

Brett Linton is a senior analyst for Steel Market Update, where he began his career. Linton has been in the steel industry since 2010. He has held roles as a category manager and strategic insights director at Reibus before returning to SMU in 2024. He is a graduate of The University of North Georgia with a degree in Finance and Accounting. Brett can be reached at brett@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-314-0179.

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