Category: Analysis

Buyers are optimistic for a strong scrap market in March, driven by limited scrap inflows from severe weather disruptions and increasing mill demand.

The US steel market has whipsawed upward on the prospect of expanded Section 232 tariffs of 25% being applied to imported steel - including downstream goods - on March 12. It seems pretty clear that domestic steel mills have the ear of the Trump administration when it comes to Section 232. The result? The much-anticipated Trump bump has finally arrived - and then some.

US primary output is at its lowest level this century

Cleveland-Cliffs said it will open its April order book for spot material at $900 per short ton (st). The Cleveland-based steelmaker said the increase was necessary because of “rapidly changing market conditions” in a letter to customers dated Friday, Feb. 21.

US sheet prices surge following tariff announcement

SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.

Some of you have told me that the current market feels about as crazy as early 2021 when demand snapped back after the initial outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Others have said it might be more like late February/early March 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – and, in the process, caused […]

SMU's Stephen Miller provides an update on the raw materials sector.

Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]

SSAB has increased plate prices by a total of $240/st in less than a month. That tally results from the current increase, an increase of $80/st in early February, and another of $60/st in late January, according to SMU’s price announcement calendar.

Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.

NLMK USA has opened its April order book at new, higher base prices for steel sheet, according to market participants. The steelmaker is seeking at least $900 per short ton (st) for hot-rolled (HR) coil and at least $1,100/st for cold-rolled and coated products, they said.

U.S. Steel has increased prices for flat-rolled steel by at least $50 per short ton (st), according to market participants. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker now seeks a minimum of $850/st for hot-rolled (HR) coil. And it seeks at least $1,050/st for cold-rolled and coated base prices, they said.

To say we’ve entered a “Brave New World” since Jan. 20 might be an exaggeration, but we’ve definitely entered a different one.

Sheet and plate prices surged higher this week on a wave of what some called “panic buying” following the Trump administration’s announcement of stricter Section 232 measures last week.

US steel mills produced an estimated 1,670,000 short tons (st) of raw steel last week, according to recently released American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures.

Nucor has increased its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil for a fourth consecutive week.

I think it’s fair to say that the last few weeks – and last week especially – have been among the most intense for any of us covering steel (or aluminum).

New duties could give companies like Alcoa and Century Aluminum revenue gains that could boost production

In this Premium analysis we examine North American oil and natural gas prices, drill rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts serve as leading indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe demand.

There has been considerable upward movement in the US prices paid for future shipment of Brazilian-produced pig iron over the last week. 

Shipments of heating and cooling equipment in the US fell to an 11-month low in December, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

The CRU Metallics Price Indicator (CRUmpi) rose by 5.0% m/m in February to 293.7, a five-month high. Scrap prices increased in different degrees this month, reflecting the confidence level in the steel market across different regions. While US scrap prices rose sharply m/m due to limited availability, those in Europe and Asia had only small […]

A look at how SMU survey respondents are reacting to President Trump's recent actions on tariffs.

Iron ore shipments on the Great Lakes saw a sharp decline in January 2025, according to the Lake Carriers’ Association (LCA).

The problem is that the situation in Washington is so fluid that no one really knows what to expect

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap widened in February ahead of the implementation of President Trump’s tariffs on steel.

US steel prices set to jump after President Trump levies new tariffs.

A lot of the changes basically entail rolling back what I’ll call, for fun, Section 232 Lite. S232 Lite resulted from watering down what I’ll call OG S232 – the one first imposed in March 2018 - with exemptions and exclusions over the years. Now, OG Section 232, is back with its across-the-board 25% tariffs against everyone.