We get all kinds of reactions to articles we publish. However, I was a bit surprised when one of our readers sent a note regarding our coverage of IHS Markit’s forecast of the impact of the coronavirus on the U.S. economy. The note said, “Article on coronavirus was despicable. Let’s just start a panic.” Usually, […]
Over the past two days Tim Triplett and I have been participating in the FMA Annual Meeting in San Antonio, Texas. The mood of the steel buyers I met with was moderately negative when it came to the ability of the steel mills to collect the price increases announced. One very large service center buyer […]
U.S. Steel continues to make interesting moves having now purchased the balance of the ownership in USS/Posco (UPI), 49.9 percent of Big River Steel with an option to purchase the balance, the $1 billion+ capital investment in the endless casting, rolling and cogeneration at Mon Valley Works and the $750 billion investment in Gary Works. […]
John Packard is traveling… The mills announced another $40 increase in flat rolled prices this week in the hopes of reversing the recent downturn in steel prices. Instead of an increase, ArcelorMittal released minimum base prices of $620 for hot rolled and $820 for cold rolled and coated. Steel Market Update puts the current benchmark […]
On Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2020, one of the most important people in the development of my career in the steel industry and in my personal life passed away—Earl Goode. Earl the Pearl. I met Earl Goode for the first time 38 years ago in Marietta, Ga. It was a beautiful spring day in May 1982. […]
We have adjusted our plate price momentum indicator from neutral to lower. Prices have been dropping over the past couple of weeks, and steel buyers are very negative on the markets right now (see some of the comments in an article above). I have to tell you I am really struggling with all of the […]
Earlier today I moved our Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral. I explained my reasoning in an article in tonight’s issue. What happens should one of the steel mills announce a price increase within the next couple of weeks? With scrap poised to move higher, and lead times being decent at most of the […]
It is rare that market direction is clear and uncontested. There have been a few times during my 42-year steel career when it was obvious prices were going to be higher tomorrow than they are today. It was during one of those times in history that I began writing a note to my steel buying […]
Economists are fond of saying, “when the United States sneezes, the rest of the world gets a cold.” Where goes the world’s largest economy, smaller economies follow. Likewise, China, the world’s second largest economy, has come down with a particularly nasty bug that is threatening the health of global commerce. By now most are familiar […]
We will begin our mid-February flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis at 8 a.m. on Monday. Currently we are inviting approximately 560 individuals to participate in the market questionnaire, which takes about 4-8 minutes to complete. If you receive an invitation, please take a few minutes to provide your insights as they are […]
I am asking manufacturing companies if their company buys parts from China, and if so, what has the coronavirus done to shipments of their products. An ag-related company told me the workers are just returning to the plant in China after the extended holidays. I was told they were seeing at least a two-week delay […]
The Super Bowl is done, the Grammys are behind us, the Oscars selected a foreign film (Parasite from South Korea) for the first time as Best Movie. The Iowa caucus presented more questions than answers. Today is the New Hampshire primary and the first votes finally are being cast to see who the Democrats will […]
I spent the second half of last week in Tampa where I was the master of ceremonies for the 31st Tampa Steel Conference hosted by the Port of Tampa. John Anton, IHS Markit Director of Steel Analytics / Pricing and Purchasing Service, provided the key economic and steel forecast for the group. He told the […]
John Packard is traveling… Steel Market Update changed its Price Momentum Indicator from Higher to Neutral today. Not that steel prices couldn’t start inching upward once again in the coming weeks. It’s just that the direction is unclear and we need to wait and watch for the next trend to reveal itself. Lead times aren’t […]
The question I am getting right now is, “Where is price momentum headed?” Good question. The SMU Price Momentum Indicator continues to point toward higher prices over the next 30 days. However, we are not blind, and we have seen prices stall here at the beginning of the year. The way I am looking at […]
It’s Super Bowl Sunday! I will try to keep my comments short so we can all enjoy the game and worry about the steel markets in the morning. On Thursday and Friday of this past week I was in Ponte Vedra, Fla., as I was speaking to the Steel Manufacturers Association. The SMA are the […]
John Packard is traveling… The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak in China a global public health emergency earlier today. Six patients in the United States have been confirmed as infected by the potentially deadly virus…so far. Makes those seasonal sniffles you’re feeling even more disconcerting, doesn’t it? And what does it mean for […]
Tap, tap, tap… the sound of fingers drumming on a stack of blank purchase orders. Today I spoke with a group of key steel buyers and many of them are sitting and waiting. They are waiting because they have no tons to place, they are waiting because service center resale prices have not caught up […]
On Thursday I provided some of the feedback I was getting from those involved in both the sales and purchasing of flat rolled steel into the North American markets. The comments continued to flow in and here are a couple more that I found interesting: The general manager of a service center provided these insights […]
I have been spending time looking at market momentum, lead times (real, not from our survey), who is buying and who is not (and why), and what the market should be concentrating on over the next couple of months (not just today). I am going to start with comments I got from a couple of […]
As we worked through pricing data this week, it was evident that much of the spot buying has occurred over the past couple of months. In our HARDI steel conference call this morning, those on the call who reported their inventory levels told the group they were either carrying inventories that were higher than normal […]
On Monday, we will begin our mid-January flat rolled and plate steel market trends questionnaire, and by the end of the week we will publish our analysis. Our Premium level members will be able to review our analysis, which will be presented in a PowerPoint presentation on Friday. Those who participate in this week’s questionnaire […]
The other day I mentioned I am open to suggestions regarding subjects to be discussed or possible speakers at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference. One of the suggestions I got was that we consider having a steel buyer’s panel. I like the idea and it has already been incorporated into the agenda. I have […]
I spent today working on two projects. First was contacting and communicating with flat rolled and plate steel buyers in order to get a sense of the current spot price offers/transactions and where the markets are heading over the near term. The second project was working on the 2020 SMU Steel Summit Conference. As with […]
I was taking a deeper dive into some of the data compiled from last week’s flat rolled and plate steel market trends analysis. Having added about 50+ new companies to our survey, we now send invitations to 500+ individuals who actively participate in the flat rolled or plate steel markets. On purpose, we concentrate on […]
I want to take a moment to thank John Walburg and the entire California Steel Industries team for their support of our Steel 101 workshop, which we just completed. The Fontana, Calif., steel mill tour was the highlight for many of our Steel 101 workshop attendees, and I want to personally thank CSI for allowing […]
John Packard is traveling…. As always, the holiday break put the brakes on buying, making it a challenge to gauge steel prices in the first week of 2020. But it appears the upward price momentum has continued into the New Year. Steel Market Update’s survey of the market over the past two days shows flat […]
For those of you who stretched out the Christmas, Hanukkah and New Year’s Holidays and are just returning to your offices – Happy New Year and welcome to the decade that promises to make the last 10 years look tame. Steel Market Update will return to our normal market analysis schedule this week, and we […]
First issue of the New Year. For that matter, today is the first issue of the new decade. It will probably take awhile to get used to 2020 vs. 2019. Of course, with the political climate and it being an election year, maybe we will have 2020 ingrained in our heads sooner rather than later. […]
Welcome back from the Christmas Holidays. This is the 149th Executive level issue of Steel Market Update produced during calendar year 2019. It is also anticipated to be the last Executive issue prior to the New Year. On Monday we will publish our last Premium issue of the year, our 49th for 2019. Christmas and […]