For steel producers, there’s a strong correlation between capacity utilization and profits. Steel Market Update tracks capacity utilization for both flat and long products and both have been on the upswing since early 2018, at least in part due to the effects of the Trump administration’s plans to impose tariffs on steel imports. From January […]
The California Energy Commission voted unanimously last week to require solar panels for new homes beginning in 2020. Included in the plan are new single-family homes, condos and apartment buildings up to three stories high. “Homes under the (new) standards will use about 50 percent less energy than those under the previous 2016 standards,” said […]
Steel Market Update began working with a large group of flat rolled and plate steel service centers last July regarding producing a new index for distributor inventories. Our initial concentration has been to collect the number of months of supply steel distrubutors were averaging as of the end of the month. Earlier this week, we […]
Last week, Steel Market Update conducted our early May flat rolled steel market trends survey. One of the key areas that we focus in on is the area of service center spot pricing to their end customers. We are interested in better understanding if steel distributors are raising, lowering or keeping spot prices the same […]
The vast majority of companies that buy foreign steel say they will continue to source product from outside the United States despite the Trump administration tariffs. About 88 percent of those responding to last week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire say they will continue to buy foreign, while the other 12 percent say they […]
With 66 percent of our service center data providers reporting, flat rolled inventories were modestly lower as of the end of April at 2.6 months of supply compared to March when inventories were at 2.7 months. A large percentage (52 percent) of the companies reporting told SMU their number of months of supply for flat […]
Employment increases in manufacturing and construction are signposts for steel sales activity. 2018 is starting off well. Rising employment and wages are the basis of GDP growth because personal consumption accounts for almost 70 percent of GDP. Steel consumption is related to GDP; therefore, we need to be aware of changes to the employment picture. […]
Steel mill shipments are increasing, and the shipment-to-inventory ratio is decreasing, which is positive for the industry. According to American Iron and Steel Institute data, total steel mill shipments increased by 13.1 percent from January 2016 through January 2018 and by 2.4 percent in January 2018 year over year. Is this believable? This is the […]
The manufacturing sector can expect positive growth through the end of 2018, predicts the Institute for Supply Management in its Spring 2018 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Manufacturing revenue is expected to increase 6.6 percent overall for 2018, an increase from the December 2017 estimate of 5.1 percent for this year. Manufacturers were much more optimistic about […]
Since November 2008 Steel Market Update has been measuring how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel felt about their company’s ability to be successful in both the existing (current) as well as future (3-6 months into the future) market conditions. The result is our nationally known SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index which we believe […]
The U.S. rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, rose this week, according to May 4 data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. drill rigs rose by 11 to 1,032 rigs, with oil rigs up 9 to 834 rigs, gas rigs up 1 to 196 rigs, and […]
Compared to this time last year, flat rolled lead times are highly extended – on all products. Plate lead times, which is not on our graphic, are also highly extended, but we are treating it differently as the domestic mills are on controlled order entry/allocation with their plate customers. Hot rolled lead times are averaging […]
Extended lead times will generally lead to steel mills being stingy about offering “deals” below the company pricing guidelines. Flat rolled steel prices have essentially plateaued. There may be a small number of “deals” out there (is $860 HRC really a “deal?”), but most mills are sticking to their guns. In all four products (hot […]
The American Iron and Steel Institute has elected Roger Newport, chief executive officer of AK Steel Corp., to serve as chairman of AISI through May 2020. “Roger Newport is one of the global steel industry’s most respected and influential leaders, and is a tireless advocate for the North American steel industry. Whether it be meeting […]
Global manufacturing started second quarter with a small hop rather than a jump. The JPMorgan Global PMI posted 53.5 in April, up slightly from March’s six-month low of 53.3. “April PMI data signaled a marginal pick-up in the rate of expansion of the global manufacturing sector, the first growth acceleration seen since the turn of […]
Economic growth is expected to continue in 2018 followed by a mild recession in 2019, says ITR Economics. Concern over looming U.S. tariffs on aluminum and steel, as well as retaliatory Chinese tariffs, aligns with the HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast of macroeconomic deceleration in the U.S. economy late in 2018. Steel Market Update is a member […]
Nations all over the globe, including the United States, blame China for its wanton overproduction of steel and predatory trade practices such as dumping and intellectual property theft. But veteran steel analyst Chuck Bradford of Bradford Research in New York sees the Chinese becoming less of a threat to free trade over time. Recently back […]
Steel Market Update downshifted its price momentum indicator from higher to neutral in late April as steel buyers reported stability in most products and prices appeared to have plateaued, at least in the short term. At month’s end, hot rolled was selling for about $873, cold rolled for just over $1,000, galvanized for around $1,100, […]
Supply executives report that new orders, production and employment are growing, according to the latest survey by the Institute for Supply Management. The April PMI in the ISM Report on Business registered 57.3, a two-point decline from March. Most of the components of the PMI registered a decrease in percentage points from March, but were […]
The Chicago Business Barometer broke its three-month downward trend, inching up 0.2 points to 57.6. Production output picked up during the month, although new orders continued to decline. Both were below year-ago levels. Supplier delivery times lengthened, and steel was mentioned by respondents as difficult to source. The index was up almost 20 percent and […]
Metalforming manufacturers are expecting steady business conditions during the next three months, according to the April 2018 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. PMA members, however, are seeing negative impacts from the Section 232 aluminum and steel tariffs. Orders are expected to remain steady in the next few months. Manufacturers said daily shipping levels […]
Key market indicators tracked by Steel Market Update are at an all-time high for April but have shown signs of weakening in the past few months. Data released in April shows that 18 of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 5 negative. The balance is within the historically normal band. Trends took a […]
This is Steel Market Update’s first Key Market Indicators report since April as we have renegotiated some data supply contracts and made a few changes to the content. The report still summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance to steel buyers. Data released […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level readers. For more information about upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Key market indicators in December were at an all-time high in the history of Steel Market Update’s analysis, but trends are deteriorating. This report summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe […]
Indicators of manufacturing activity point to a strong first half for the U.S. economy and the steel industry. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief in […]
GDP growth slowed in the first quarter, but on a trailing 12-month basis has improved for the last seven quarters, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of government data. The first estimate of GDP in the first quarter was 2.32 percent, down from 2.87 percent in Q4 2017. Economy.com reported: “U.S. GDP growth moderated […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in March and recovered partially in April, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) has advanced for nine of the last 10 months, according to data from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in April was 128.7, up from 127.0 in March. The 3MMA increased from […]
Global steel demand will reach 1,616.1 million tons in 2018, an increase of 1.8 percent over 2017, estimates the World Steel Association in its spring Short Range Outlook. In 2019, WSA forecasts global demand will grow by 0.7 percent to 1,626.7 million tons. “In the next couple of years, the global economic situation is expected […]
ITR Economics continues to expect economic growth in 2018 followed by a mild recession in 2019. Concern over looming tariffs aligns with the HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast of macroeconomic deceleration in the U.S. economy late in 2018. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the Heating, […]
Orders for durable goods, manufactured items expected to last three years or more, jumped 2.6 percent in March primarily driven by new contracts for Boeing airplanes. Orders for commercial aircraft and parts leapt 44.5 percent for the month, said the Commerce Department on Thursday. Excluding the volatile transportation category, new orders were flat for the […]