Metalforming manufacturers are expecting steady business conditions during the next three months, according to the April 2018 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. PMA members, however, are seeing negative impacts from the Section 232 aluminum and steel tariffs. Orders are expected to remain steady in the next few months. Manufacturers said daily shipping levels […]
Key market indicators tracked by Steel Market Update are at an all-time high for April but have shown signs of weakening in the past few months. Data released in April shows that 18 of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 5 negative. The balance is within the historically normal band. Trends took a […]
This is Steel Market Update’s first Key Market Indicators report since April as we have renegotiated some data supply contracts and made a few changes to the content. The report still summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance to steel buyers. Data released […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level readers. For more information about upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Key market indicators in December were at an all-time high in the history of Steel Market Update’s analysis, but trends are deteriorating. This report summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe […]
Indicators of manufacturing activity point to a strong first half for the U.S. economy and the steel industry. This report summarizes seven data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the United States. We have reported on most of these separately in our Steel Market Update publications, and therefore will be brief in […]
GDP growth slowed in the first quarter, but on a trailing 12-month basis has improved for the last seven quarters, according to Steel Market Update’s latest analysis of government data. The first estimate of GDP in the first quarter was 2.32 percent, down from 2.87 percent in Q4 2017. Economy.com reported: “U.S. GDP growth moderated […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in March and recovered partially in April, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) has advanced for nine of the last 10 months, according to data from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in April was 128.7, up from 127.0 in March. The 3MMA increased from […]
Global steel demand will reach 1,616.1 million tons in 2018, an increase of 1.8 percent over 2017, estimates the World Steel Association in its spring Short Range Outlook. In 2019, WSA forecasts global demand will grow by 0.7 percent to 1,626.7 million tons. “In the next couple of years, the global economic situation is expected […]
ITR Economics continues to expect economic growth in 2018 followed by a mild recession in 2019. Concern over looming tariffs aligns with the HARDI/ITR quarterly forecast of macroeconomic deceleration in the U.S. economy late in 2018. Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI, the Heating, […]
Orders for durable goods, manufactured items expected to last three years or more, jumped 2.6 percent in March primarily driven by new contracts for Boeing airplanes. Orders for commercial aircraft and parts leapt 44.5 percent for the month, said the Commerce Department on Thursday. Excluding the volatile transportation category, new orders were flat for the […]
Billings at architecture firms slowed in March but remained in expansion territory at an Architecture Billings Index score of 51.0, down one point from February. Inquiries and value of new design contracts remained generally strong overall, reported the American Institute of Architects, although firms reported concern about planned U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. The […]
The International Monetary Fund has made an upward revision to its forecast for global GDP growth in 2018 and 2019. The IMF updates its World Economic Outlook (WEO) in April and October each year. The IMF blog last Tuesday stated: “The world economy continues to show broad-based momentum. Against that positive backdrop, the prospect of […]
Last month, Steel Market Update forecast flat rolled steel shipments from U.S. service centers would remain steady at 109,565 tons per day in February to 109,594 tons per day in March. The Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported last week that sheet distributors shipped 107,314 tons per day, a decrease over February. Our shipment forecast […]
Oil prices are firm, and the drill rig count continues to increase, which is positive news for suppliers to the energy sector. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has remained above $60 per barrel since Feb. 14 and on April 10 closed at $65.48 per barrel. The total number of operating rigs exploring […]
Once each quarter, Steel Market Update publishes the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Many analysts don’t believe these self-serving Party figures, but we include them in our reports because of the importance of China in the global steel scene, and these numbers are all that’s available. […]
Is your company at risk due to the impact of the Section 232 tariffs? Industry executives responding to Steel Market Update’s April 16 flat rolled market trends questionnaire are almost evenly split on whether the Trump administration tariffs will help or hurt their businesses. Fifty-two percent say their business is not at risk, while 48 […]
According to manufacturing companies, as well as steel service centers, the steady trend for higher flat rolled steel spot prices out of the distributors is changing. For the past four months, at least 74 percent of distributors and their manufacturing customers have been reporting spot flat rolled prices as rising. The 46 percent of the […]
There’s a distinctive noise of metal on metal floating through the halls of Oak Forest High School, and it’s music to the ears of Daniel Brown, the school’s industrial technology teacher. Brown has been supervising the Welding Works Explorer post in the Chicago suburb since fall 2016. He has been teaching welding for 17 years […]
We have been struggling with the decision as to when we should make an adjustment to the SMU Price Momentum Indicator. The issue that has been holding us back for the last week or two is the role the government is playing in the steel market, which muddies the water. We have made the decision […]
Both current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers remain at optimistic levels, though buyers’ confidence appears to have seen some erosion as measured by the three-month moving averages in Steel Market Update’s Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The index is designed to measure changes in buyers’ attitudes, which offers insight into their likely decision-making. […]
Based on responses to this week’s Steel Market Update flat rolled market trends questionnaire, mill lead times remain extended, but appear to have stabilized a bit in the past month. Mill lead time, which is the amount of time it takes for the domestic mills to produce a new order taken this week, is one […]
Are steel mills willing to negotiate spot prices on new orders in the current market conditions? For the most part mills are holding firm, but there may be some initials signs of a loosening in price negotiations, according to respondents to this week’s Steel Market Update market trends questionnaire. Every two weeks, in a proprietary […]
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts in March and early April. Outlooks remained positive, but contacts in various sectors including manufacturing, agriculture and transportation expressed concern about the newly imposed or proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum. The Fed’s latest Beige Book released on […]
Manufacturing in New York State continued to expand in April, but at a slower pace, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Survey participants expressed apprehension about future business conditions. The general business conditions index fell seven points from its March reading to register 15.8. New […]
The U.S. rig count, an indicator of oil country tubular goods demand, rose this week, according to April 13 data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes. The number of active U.S. drill rigs rose by 5 to 1,008 rigs, with oil rigs up 7 to 815 rigs, gas rigs down 2 to 192 rigs, and […]
As Steel Market Update analyzed the inventory data received from flat rolled steel distributors, we found the number of months of supply that steel service centers are carrying was lower at the end of March than what we reported at the end of February. With 96 percent of our data providers reporting, the number of […]
Since the beginning of the New Year, manufacturing companies and steel service centers have been reporting service center spot pricing to their end customers as rising. Just a few weeks ago, 100 percent of the manufacturers responding to our mid-March flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire reported distributor prices as rising. Last week, Steel Market […]
U.S. demand for steel sheet products expanded slowly through February, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and the U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent supply is a proxy for market demand. Demand momentum for sheet products in total was negative in the three months through February, […]
Steel Market Update’s new analysis of sheet, plate, long and tubular product imports and their 18 subcategories is still a work in progress, but it offers a timely means to examine the effects of the Section 232 legislation on the market. Table 1 shows total supply to the market in three months through February and […]
“Compared to one month ago, demand is declining, but to a more normal level,” commented one respondent to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire last week, expressing a common view. There has been a surge in demand in recent weeks due to the Section 232 tariff decision by President Trump. Many buyers have been buying […]